The odds of Democrats taking both chambers top 75%; Musk should worry about hearings, not stock prices
According to prediction markets, the odds of Democrats winning both the House and Senate are around 76.5%. Americans vote today, with the results becoming clear tomorrow morning Beijing time. Lao Niu won’t take sides on who wins or loses; he’s only watching Musk. According to foreign media reports, Democratic lawmakers have said they would investigate his stint at the Department of Government Efficiency, the contracts SpaceX signed with the government, and the clean-energy subsidies Tesla received if they win the House. According to reports, Trump said late Monday night Beijing time that government employees could be pardoned preemptively if necessary. Speaking about Musk, he called it mere speculation but said the people involved needed protection.
Lao Niu’s take: first, separate what’s just noise from what could actually become a hurdle. Hearings and subpoenas are noise: they can keep the argument going for two years, but they can’t undo the launch orders SpaceX has already signed. The real hurdle is government contract and subsidy funding, which depends on how future appropriations are negotiated. According to U.S. stock market quotes, SPCX closed Monday at 136.37 and TSLA at 403.82; according to futures quotes, the two perpetual contracts are currently trading around 136.9 and 401.7, respectively. Neither has made a major move ahead of the election.
The risk is on the day the results come out: both stocks could initially be swept along by sentiment, and the noisier the headlines, the greater the volatility. I’m holding the short-term long position in SPCX opened around 138.6 as before. Lao Niu won’t add to it or open another position. These are Lao Niu’s market notes ahead of the vote—business, not politics.
$SPCX $TSLA #美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？
According to prediction markets, the odds of Democrats winning both the House and Senate are around 76.5%. Americans vote today, with the results becoming clear tomorrow morning Beijing time. Lao Niu won’t take sides on who wins or loses; he’s only watching Musk. According to foreign media reports, Democratic lawmakers have said they would investigate his stint at the Department of Government Efficiency, the contracts SpaceX signed with the government, and the clean-energy subsidies Tesla received if they win the House. According to reports, Trump said late Monday night Beijing time that government employees could be pardoned preemptively if necessary. Speaking about Musk, he called it mere speculation but said the people involved needed protection.
Lao Niu’s take: first, separate what’s just noise from what could actually become a hurdle. Hearings and subpoenas are noise: they can keep the argument going for two years, but they can’t undo the launch orders SpaceX has already signed. The real hurdle is government contract and subsidy funding, which depends on how future appropriations are negotiated. According to U.S. stock market quotes, SPCX closed Monday at 136.37 and TSLA at 403.82; according to futures quotes, the two perpetual contracts are currently trading around 136.9 and 401.7, respectively. Neither has made a major move ahead of the election.
The risk is on the day the results come out: both stocks could initially be swept along by sentiment, and the noisier the headlines, the greater the volatility. I’m holding the short-term long position in SPCX opened around 138.6 as before. Lao Niu won’t add to it or open another position. These are Lao Niu’s market notes ahead of the vote—business, not politics.
$SPCX $TSLA #美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？
