Good news arrives, but the coin price drops instead—$NEAR taught me a lesson this week.
11/2 Governance vote passed: NEAR’s annual inflation cap will be lowered from 2.5% to 1.6% (phased in over 24 months, and still requiring validator support and a protocol upgrade). In theory, that’s good news, but spot prices fell 10.9% over 24 hours. The current price is 3.78, with today’s trading volume at about $105 million.
Three numbers tell the story:
1️⃣ On 10/29, it fell 14% in a single day (4.73→4.06)—the same day as Binance’s security incident, when the whole market deleveraged.
2️⃣ The high on the 8th was 4.73. It’s now about 20% below that high and has fallen for two days straight.
3️⃣ After breaking below 4.30, that level became resistance. 3.59 is the support I’m watching below.
My take: Lowering inflation is good news in the long run, but when the market has been anticipating it for a month, the price won’t rise on the day it happens. What’s weighing on it now is the broader market ($BTC 24h -2.3%) and profit-taking—not a problem with the project.
What would make me admit I’m wrong: if it reclaims 4.30 on strong volume, I’ll concede that selling pressure has been absorbed. If 3.59 gives way, don’t buy the dip just yet. By the way, $ZEC is also down 11%; the two biggest losers today are both coins that had rallied a lot earlier.
Which do you think NEAR will hit first: 4.30 or 3.59? Leave a price level.
#NEAR #增发 #MarketAnalysis
(For reference only, not investment advice)
11/2 Governance vote passed: NEAR’s annual inflation cap will be lowered from 2.5% to 1.6% (phased in over 24 months, and still requiring validator support and a protocol upgrade). In theory, that’s good news, but spot prices fell 10.9% over 24 hours. The current price is 3.78, with today’s trading volume at about $105 million.
Three numbers tell the story:
1️⃣ On 10/29, it fell 14% in a single day (4.73→4.06)—the same day as Binance’s security incident, when the whole market deleveraged.
2️⃣ The high on the 8th was 4.73. It’s now about 20% below that high and has fallen for two days straight.
3️⃣ After breaking below 4.30, that level became resistance. 3.59 is the support I’m watching below.
My take: Lowering inflation is good news in the long run, but when the market has been anticipating it for a month, the price won’t rise on the day it happens. What’s weighing on it now is the broader market ($BTC 24h -2.3%) and profit-taking—not a problem with the project.
What would make me admit I’m wrong: if it reclaims 4.30 on strong volume, I’ll concede that selling pressure has been absorbed. If 3.59 gives way, don’t buy the dip just yet. By the way, $ZEC is also down 11%; the two biggest losers today are both coins that had rallied a lot earlier.
Which do you think NEAR will hit first: 4.30 or 3.59? Leave a price level.
#NEAR #增发 #MarketAnalysis
(For reference only, not investment advice)
