How to trade short-term futures today: let's talk about the framework
For this trade, the funding rate is more honest than the candlestick chart.
Futures trading comes down to just three sets of numbers. Everything else is noise.
1. BTC 76616, 24h 76542-78471, change -2.29%.
2. BTC notional open interest: 7.67 billion USD, 24h +2.75%
3. Account-wide long/short ratio: 2.71
My take: The funding rate is 0.0100%, close to zero, and the long/short ratio is 2.71. Leverage hasn't picked a side. If it hasn't, don't use high leverage to pick one for it.
Execution range (based on the current price and market structure, not an old chart):
- Momentum zone: only consider chasing after price gets above 77,229. If it doesn't, it's a false breakout.
- Buy the pullback: 75,697-76,157; don't buy if that level fails.
- No-trade zone: if the 1h candle closes below 75,237, skip this trade.
My position: I don't try to catch the first knife. Until the drop is accompanied by falling open interest, any early entry is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are not filled in.
Would you place a limit order at the pullback level, or wait for the candle to close?
#BTC #合约风控 #TradingNotes
Useful takeaway: The dot plot shows each official's individual projection, not the decision at the next meeting.
Idea: VIX <16: If US stocks are grinding higher, you can go with the sentiment; trim your futures position by one notch first.
Data card (same snapshot as the main text; missing values are shown as dashes):
BTC 76,616 -2.29% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,249 -2.03% ETH/BTC 0.02935
S&P 7,541 -1.76% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,164 -3.84% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 -0.29% DXY 5-day
VIX 21.15 +20.72% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.67B (24h +2.75) Long/short 2.7092 Binance USDⓈ-M
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not a trade instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
For this trade, the funding rate is more honest than the candlestick chart.
Futures trading comes down to just three sets of numbers. Everything else is noise.
1. BTC 76616, 24h 76542-78471, change -2.29%.
2. BTC notional open interest: 7.67 billion USD, 24h +2.75%
3. Account-wide long/short ratio: 2.71
My take: The funding rate is 0.0100%, close to zero, and the long/short ratio is 2.71. Leverage hasn't picked a side. If it hasn't, don't use high leverage to pick one for it.
Execution range (based on the current price and market structure, not an old chart):
- Momentum zone: only consider chasing after price gets above 77,229. If it doesn't, it's a false breakout.
- Buy the pullback: 75,697-76,157; don't buy if that level fails.
- No-trade zone: if the 1h candle closes below 75,237, skip this trade.
My position: I don't try to catch the first knife. Until the drop is accompanied by falling open interest, any early entry is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are not filled in.
Would you place a limit order at the pullback level, or wait for the candle to close?
#BTC #合约风控 #TradingNotes
Useful takeaway: The dot plot shows each official's individual projection, not the decision at the next meeting.
Idea: VIX <16: If US stocks are grinding higher, you can go with the sentiment; trim your futures position by one notch first.
Data card (same snapshot as the main text; missing values are shown as dashes):
BTC 76,616 -2.29% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,249 -2.03% ETH/BTC 0.02935
S&P 7,541 -1.76% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,164 -3.84% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 -0.29% DXY 5-day
VIX 21.15 +20.72% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.67B (24h +2.75) Long/short 2.7092 Binance USDⓈ-M
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not a trade instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL