Kioxia’s guidance comes in about 15% below expectations; Micron sinks 5.78% Monday to 833.59 — another memory-stock selloff, still about 11% below the 20-day moving average
Here’s what we saw: Kioxia expects operating profit of about 2.00 trillion yen for October–December, roughly 15% below the Street’s 2.35 trillion yen estimate and nearly flat quarter over quarter. Its Tokyo-listed shares plunged about 15.8%. The quarter-over-quarter increase in NAND average selling prices narrowed from about 70% to around 20%. Micron closed at 833.59 (−5.78%), still about 11.2% below its 20-day moving average of approximately 939. SanDisk (−6.6%) and Western Digital (−7.5%) were dragged down too.
My take: The guidance has punctured the price-increase narrative. The AI demand story is still intact, but the short-term selloff is about expectations for slower growth. I’m not catching this falling knife.
Watching, not chasing: Let’s talk again if it gets back above Friday’s close of 884.7 or the 20-day moving average at approximately 939. If it breaks below Monday’s low, assume the valuation squeeze in memory stocks isn’t over yet.
Do you think this is an overreaction to a shipment-timing mismatch, or a sign that the pricing cycle has peaked?
$MU $AVGO
#芯片股 #存储芯片
Here’s what we saw: Kioxia expects operating profit of about 2.00 trillion yen for October–December, roughly 15% below the Street’s 2.35 trillion yen estimate and nearly flat quarter over quarter. Its Tokyo-listed shares plunged about 15.8%. The quarter-over-quarter increase in NAND average selling prices narrowed from about 70% to around 20%. Micron closed at 833.59 (−5.78%), still about 11.2% below its 20-day moving average of approximately 939. SanDisk (−6.6%) and Western Digital (−7.5%) were dragged down too.
My take: The guidance has punctured the price-increase narrative. The AI demand story is still intact, but the short-term selloff is about expectations for slower growth. I’m not catching this falling knife.
Watching, not chasing: Let’s talk again if it gets back above Friday’s close of 884.7 or the 20-day moving average at approximately 939. If it breaks below Monday’s low, assume the valuation squeeze in memory stocks isn’t over yet.
Do you think this is an overreaction to a shipment-timing mismatch, or a sign that the pricing cycle has peaked?
$MU $AVGO
#芯片股 #存储芯片
