Shouyue Macro Watch | November 3
Why has the market not shifted toward risk appetite even after oil prices fell?
Conclusion: The decline in the energy risk premium has improved the marginal conditions for inflation expectations, but has not yet led to a broad easing of financial conditions. Short-term and real interest rates remain restrictive, tech stocks have retreated after surging, and crypto assets remain under pressure. For now, it is more appropriate to watch whether the recovery can take hold; it is still too early to increase structural risk exposure.
I. The macro mix is improving, but asset pricing remains divided
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 55.5 in October, above expectations of 54.6 and the previous reading of 54.5. New orders came in at 55.5 and production at 59.0, indicating that manufacturing demand and output remain resilient. The price index fell from 77.9 to 75.2, below expectations of 77.
The positive aspect of this combination is that growth has not clearly lost momentum and cost pressures have eased at the margin. However, the price index remains elevated, reflecting a decline in the breadth of price increases. This is not the same as a decrease in the price level, much less proof that inflationary pressure has been eliminated.
Other data has also failed to show a consistent signal of accelerating growth. September construction spending fell 1.9% month over month, below expectations for 0.4% growth; meanwhile, the August increase was revised up from 0.9% to 2.0%, and the revised baseline also needs to be taken into account.
The market reaction is more informative than any single data point.
On November 2, the S&P 500 closed down 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%, and the Dow rose 0.4%. The S&P 500 was up 1.1% at one point in the morning session, but ultimately gave back all of its gains.
This shows that resilient growth and easing energy prices are not yet enough to drive a broad revaluation of risk assets. Tech-sector performance may still be affected by factors such as earnings expectations, valuations, and position adjustments; macroeconomic improvements should not be translated directly into a bullish conclusion.
2. Lower oil prices do not mean policy constraints have eased in tandem
On November 2, WTI and Brent crude settled at $96.46 and $104.77, down approximately 7.4% and 7.6% on the day, respectively.
Expectations of U.S.-Iran negotiations have lowered some geopolitical risk premium, a marginal positive for the inflation outlook. But this change is first and foremost an adjustment in crude oil pricing; it does not prove that hostilities have ceased or that shipping and supply have recovered. Whether prices for refined products such as diesel also decline will determine if the easing in energy costs can be passed through further.
The rates market has also offered no indication of broad-based easing.
U.S. Treasury daily data for November 2:
The 2-year yield was 4.59%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day;
The 10-year yield was 4.91%, down 3 basis points;
The 30-year yield was 5.28%, down 3 basis points;
The 10-year real yield was 2.62%, up 2 basis points.
Long-term nominal yields fell, while short-term and real yields rose, indicating divergent pricing across maturities and risk components.
For gold, rising real yields mean that the opportunity cost of holding the metal remains a headwind. For tech and crypto, the decline in long-term nominal yields has not yet translated into clear valuation or liquidity support.
The hourly U.S. Dollar Index quote around 07:04 was approximately 101.799, above 101.634 at 21:59 in the previous review. Compared with last night's research snapshot, the dollar has not continued to weaken.
Therefore, the more accurate assessment for now is that energy conditions have eased somewhat, while monetary and financial constraints remain.
3. Policy and fiscal matters: Distinguish changes in expectations from actual liquidity
Expectations for December policy remain tilted toward tightness.
The Polymarket page collected in this review showed an approximately 74% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike and 24% probability of no change, compared with approximately 71% and 28%, respectively, in the previous review.
This is prediction-market pricing, not the Federal Reserve's view, and the change cannot be attributed to ISM alone. A verifiable probability from CME FedWatch was not available in this review, so it cannot be concluded that the two markets have jointly confirmed the same direction.
On the fiscal side, fourth-quarter borrowing is estimated at $618 billion, $10 billion lower than the August estimate, mainly because beginning cash was higher than previously assumed. Excluding this factor, borrowing needs actually increased by $24 billion.
A lower borrowing estimate does not equate to net liquidity being injected in the current period. More important to the market are the maturity structure of future debt issuance, changes in Treasury cash balances, and the actual response of indicators such as bank reserves.
The quarterly refunding announcement at 21:30 on November 4 warrants attention, but borrowing adjustments or debt buybacks should not be prematurely interpreted as quantitative easing.
4. Cross-asset outlook: Defensive positioning still leads; recovery requires price confirmation
Around 08:05 Beijing time, Binance USDT perpetual mark prices were:
BTC 76767.80;
ETH 2251.26;
SOL 91.9823;
HYPE 84.272;
ZEC 1134.31;
XRP 1.25030;
Gold 3957.66.
Compared with the snapshot at 22:10 last night, the six coins fell by approximately 1.60%, 1.82%, 2.58%, 2.21%, 10.47%, and 0.29%, respectively, while gold was essentially flat. These are changes between two research snapshots, not 24-hour percentage changes.
BTC remains the main correlation anchor for the crypto market. The 4H EMA20 and EMA50 at the 08:00 close were approximately 77895 and 78880, and price remains below the moving-average band. Until price reclaims this band and establishes effective support above it, any rebound should initially be viewed as a recovery attempt, not directly upgraded to a trend reversal.
For ETH, watch whether it can recover the 4H moving-average band around 2271–2297. SOL closed below its former 93.13 pivot on the 4H chart. The old support thesis needs to be reassessed; a brief BTC rebound alone is not enough to restore the priority of a bullish stance.
HYPE shows divergence across timeframes: it has broken below the former 85.304 invalidation level for recovery on the 4H chart, but remains above the daily EMA20 and EMA50, around 83.445 and 82.747. There is evidence of short-term weakness, but an independent confirmation is still lacking for a bearish weekly trend.
ZEC fell more than 10% between the two snapshots, so the previous assessment of relative strength needs to be withdrawn. After the old support zone failed, wait for a new structure to form rather than relying on the former support or buying the dip based on the size of the decline.
XRP has been relatively resilient, but remains below the 4H moving-average band around 1.2554–1.2727. Its relative outperformance has not yet translated into an improvement in the absolute trend.
Gold's short-term structure is relatively stable: the 4H close was 3956.18, above the EMA20 at approximately 3929.70 but still below the EMA50 at approximately 3967.40. The daily chart has also yet to reclaim the EMA20 at approximately 4033.73.
The possibility of an intraday pullback and recovery in gold can remain under observation, but rising real yields and daily-chart resistance still constrain a bullish trend assessment.
Among tech-related assets, SNDK and SOXL remain weak. SKHYNIX perpetuals have fallen below the former 1052.74 reassessment threshold on the 4H chart, so the previous relative-strength assessment also needs to be downgraded and checked against the Korean spot market.
These are all observations of market structure, not grounds for chasing orders at current prices. The macro outlook cannot replace specific entry conditions, and perpetual prices cannot substitute for the performance of the U.S. and Korean spot markets.
5. Flow evidence: Improved institutional support cannot yet be confirmed
As of the morning data collection, complete November 2 ETF data for the six coins was still unavailable. When fund-level details are missing, an aggregate zero displayed on a page should not be treated as zero actual subscriptions or redemptions.
The three-trading-day window in this review covers October 29 and 30, and November 2; the seven-trading-day window covers October 23 and 26–30, and November 2.
Excluding the still-missing November 2 data, the subtotals for the reported portions of the two windows are:
BTC: net outflows of $626.0 million and $340.3 million;
ETH: net outflows of $261.2 million and $427.0 million;
SOL: net outflows of $38.5 million and $71.6 million;
HYPE: a net inflow of $3.7 million and a net outflow of $0.6 million;
ZEC's tracked single product, ZCSH: net inflows of $10.2 million and $38.3 million.
These are subtotals for incomplete windows only and should not be treated as final three-day or seven-day cumulative figures. Complete date data is still missing for XRP's four-product basket, so no conclusion is being made yet about fund flows for that basket.
For precious metals, SLV's issuer reported physical holdings of 15,759.44 tonnes on November 2, up 113.71 tonnes from October 30. A confirmed increase in physical silver holdings has occurred, but the latest official tonnage for GLD was not available in this review, so this does not support an inference that gold funds also increased their holdings.
The conclusion on flows remains: localized support is present, but a broad-based return of capital has not been confirmed.
6. Options: Track a fixed expiry batch to avoid overinterpreting max pain
Continue tracking the November 6 expiry batch.
This review's CoinGlass summary for the specified Deribit batch shows max pain at $79,000 for BTC and $2,350 for ETH, matching the displayed values in the previous valid direct-chain record. Put/Call ratios were approximately 0.349 and 1.111, respectively.
Since the raw, contract-by-contract chain was not recalculated using the same methodology in this review, open-interest differences across sources can only serve as a reference and cannot be considered verified net additions to positions.
For the Nasdaq November 6 Friday PM series, two websites show max pain at 28,700 and total OI of 6,796, but the data is still dated October 30. Changes shown on the pages cannot be used to infer overnight position shifts. NDX, QQQ, and the Nasdaq Composite must be treated separately.
The complete chain and corresponding futures contract month for gold GC options for the specified weekly expiry are still unavailable, so no unverifiable max-pain figure is provided this period.
Options data is used to help identify position concentrations and event risk. Max pain does not guarantee a price reversion, and an increase in put positions alone does not prove net bearish positioning—much less justify widening take-profit targets or loosening stop-losses.
7. Event window: Elections, employment, and Treasury supply overlap
All times below are Beijing time:
November 3 is Japan's Culture Day, and Tokyo spot markets are closed; eligible JPX derivatives have a holiday trading schedule. Korea's regular spot session runs from 08:00 to 14:30 and does not adjust for the U.S. switch to standard time.
U.S. equities open for regular trading at 22:30 tonight and close at 05:00 the following day; watch JOLTS and factory orders at 23:00.
The market open is close to the data release window, so first observe how prices digest the information. After the first 15-minute candle closes following the 23:15 data release, assess new opportunities with 5M/15M confirmation.
U.S. midterm election results will be reported state by state; there is no single nationwide results announcement time. Until control of the seats is clear, do not prematurely interpret market moves as a “red wave” or “blue wave” trade.
November 4: watch ADP at 21:15, the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement at 21:30, ISM services at 23:00, and EIA inventories at 23:30.
On November 6, this week's Deribit batch expires at 16:00, with a monitoring window from 15:30 to 16:00; U.S. nonfarm payrolls are released at 21:30. U.S. equity weekly PM options expire later, during the U.S. market-close window. These three events should be managed separately.
Strategic implications this period
Current evidence supports maintaining a defensive ranking while keeping a conditional recovery scenario in play.
Increasing risk exposure requires evidence of easing pressure from the dollar and real yields, BTC reclaiming a key 4H zone, and improved support in tech spot markets. If oil prices rise again alongside a stronger dollar and higher yields, recovery expectations should be lowered further.
For execution, wait for price to return to the planned zone and confirm the move before entering. Manage existing positions according to the original stop-loss, take-profit, and protection rules; secure protection after TP1, do not loosen stop-losses, and do not passively turn an intraday position that is losing into a trend position.
Lower oil prices provide conditions for improvement; whether these conditions translate into a sustained move still needs confirmation from both flows and price action.
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Morning of November 3, 2026
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