📈 TQQQ has suffered sharp crashes every so often over the past two years. Are there trading opportunities?
Conclusion: There are opportunities if you follow a plan, but don’t buy every dip. 3x leverage can turn an ordinary Nasdaq pullback into a steep crash.
📊 A few major drawdowns over the past two years (price basis)
• 2024: about -37% at its deepest
• 2024.12–2025.4: about -58%; took about 8 months to recover its previous high
• 2025.10–2026.3: about -37%
• Currently about -32% from its 2026.6 high (about $59 vs. $87), and has been underwater for about 5 months
The worst historical drawdown was about -82% in 2021–2022; it took about 3 years to recover its previous high.
🛠️ A relatively rule-based approach
1. Buy the dip while the trend is intact: When QQQ is above its 200-day moving average, a -15% to -25% drop looks more like a swing-trading opportunity. Don’t stubbornly hold on if it falls below the long-term moving average or a liquidity crisis hits.
2. Scale in: Build positions in stages at -20%/-30%/-40%, and set a firm cap on your total position size.
3. Trade swings rather than holding indefinitely; set an invalidation point. Long-term, unhedged holding can be badly hurt by volatility decay.
4. Options can be used to cap your maximum loss.
5. Don’t use SQQQ as a long-term hedge; its decay is just as severe.
⚠️ A -32% drop isn’t small, but it’s not as extreme as -58% either. First figure out whether this is a routine tech pullback or the first leg of a crisis; position sizes should be smaller.
This is not investment advice.
Conclusion: There are opportunities if you follow a plan, but don’t buy every dip. 3x leverage can turn an ordinary Nasdaq pullback into a steep crash.
📊 A few major drawdowns over the past two years (price basis)
• 2024: about -37% at its deepest
• 2024.12–2025.4: about -58%; took about 8 months to recover its previous high
• 2025.10–2026.3: about -37%
• Currently about -32% from its 2026.6 high (about $59 vs. $87), and has been underwater for about 5 months
The worst historical drawdown was about -82% in 2021–2022; it took about 3 years to recover its previous high.
🛠️ A relatively rule-based approach
1. Buy the dip while the trend is intact: When QQQ is above its 200-day moving average, a -15% to -25% drop looks more like a swing-trading opportunity. Don’t stubbornly hold on if it falls below the long-term moving average or a liquidity crisis hits.
2. Scale in: Build positions in stages at -20%/-30%/-40%, and set a firm cap on your total position size.
3. Trade swings rather than holding indefinitely; set an invalidation point. Long-term, unhedged holding can be badly hurt by volatility decay.
4. Options can be used to cap your maximum loss.
5. Don’t use SQQQ as a long-term hedge; its decay is just as severe.
⚠️ A -32% drop isn’t small, but it’s not as extreme as -58% either. First figure out whether this is a routine tech pullback or the first leg of a crisis; position sizes should be smaller.
This is not investment advice.