For most of this year, U.S. Treasuries and oil have moved almost in lockstep, with their correlation at one point reaching 80%. In October, that link broke: oil prices rose more than 10% for the month, while long-term yields moved lower.
A portfolio manager at BlackRock who specializes in systematic alternative strategies named this one of October’s most noteworthy shifts. In his view, the correlation had been so strong that betting on the relationship between the two was almost pointless. Now that it has broken down, it’s informative again.
The real value of this little-known fact is that it reminds us: many so-called market patterns are just habits of capital flows during a particular period. When those habits change, anyone trading by the old patterns becomes someone else’s liquidity.
The pricing of assets like $BTC is tied at one end to long-term interest rates and at the other to energy costs. When the two start moving independently, don’t rush to buy the narrative.
#宏观 #Trading Psychology
A portfolio manager at BlackRock who specializes in systematic alternative strategies named this one of October’s most noteworthy shifts. In his view, the correlation had been so strong that betting on the relationship between the two was almost pointless. Now that it has broken down, it’s informative again.
The real value of this little-known fact is that it reminds us: many so-called market patterns are just habits of capital flows during a particular period. When those habits change, anyone trading by the old patterns becomes someone else’s liquidity.
The pricing of assets like $BTC is tied at one end to long-term interest rates and at the other to energy costs. When the two start moving independently, don’t rush to buy the narrative.
#宏观 #Trading Psychology
