SOL opened right on the edge of a cliff: opened at 91.95, dipped to a low of 91.90, and is now at 92.36, still down 3% over the past 24 hours.
This is the third test of the 92 area—the hammer candle low was 92.25 on October 30, it hit 91.90 intraday the day before yesterday, and today it opened right here. The first two tests failed to hold the ground above, but both completed daily candles left lower wicks, suggesting buyers are stepping in around this zone.
To be clear: today's candle is still forming. Low volume at this point doesn't mean volume is drying up. To tell whether selling pressure has eased, we need to compare the three days' trading volumes after the close at 8 a.m. tomorrow. Don't draw conclusions from a half-formed candle.
The overhead resistance is formidable: the 7-day moving average at 95.5, the 99-day at 98.8, and the 25-day at 102—three layers of resistance. This rebound hasn't even reached the nearest one. Funding is neutral at 0.01%, and open interest is unchanged at 870 million—the shorts aren't adding, the longs aren't giving up. It's a stalemate.
Here's my plan, laid out on the table: if tomorrow's close holds above 91.9 and closes green on higher volume, I'll take a long position and target 95.5 first. On the other hand, if it closes below 91.9, all three support attempts are invalidated; 90 is the starting point, with the August base around 85 as the next level down.
We're at the point where the last candle hasn't finished forming yet. The most expensive move is to wait.
$SOL
(Personal trading journal; not investment advice. DYOR)
This is the third test of the 92 area—the hammer candle low was 92.25 on October 30, it hit 91.90 intraday the day before yesterday, and today it opened right here. The first two tests failed to hold the ground above, but both completed daily candles left lower wicks, suggesting buyers are stepping in around this zone.
To be clear: today's candle is still forming. Low volume at this point doesn't mean volume is drying up. To tell whether selling pressure has eased, we need to compare the three days' trading volumes after the close at 8 a.m. tomorrow. Don't draw conclusions from a half-formed candle.
The overhead resistance is formidable: the 7-day moving average at 95.5, the 99-day at 98.8, and the 25-day at 102—three layers of resistance. This rebound hasn't even reached the nearest one. Funding is neutral at 0.01%, and open interest is unchanged at 870 million—the shorts aren't adding, the longs aren't giving up. It's a stalemate.
Here's my plan, laid out on the table: if tomorrow's close holds above 91.9 and closes green on higher volume, I'll take a long position and target 95.5 first. On the other hand, if it closes below 91.9, all three support attempts are invalidated; 90 is the starting point, with the August base around 85 as the next level down.
We're at the point where the last candle hasn't finished forming yet. The most expensive move is to wait.
$SOL
(Personal trading journal; not investment advice. DYOR)
