Hayes says BTC still has further to fall—but don’t forget who he is
#Hayes
Arthur Hayes (one of the key inventors of perpetual futures) posted a very short message on X today, along with a chart of the U.S. dollar liquidity index. The gist was just one sentence:
“Dollar liquidity is rebuilding. Expect BTC to weaken until the Fed and/or banks start expanding their balance sheets.”
What’s interesting is that he didn’t deny liquidity is returning. Instead, he treated “liquidity rebuilding” and “balance-sheet expansion” as two separate things. In other words, some money is flowing back in, but until the Fed or banks actually step in and expand their balance sheets, that inflow won’t be enough to push BTC higher.
Against today’s backdrop, the timing of the post is intriguing—Binance was just hacked, market sentiment is fearful, and BTC is under pressure around $77,000. When a veteran who has lived through multiple cycles makes a bearish call at a moment like this, plenty of people are naturally going to take note.
Still, “watch what Hayes does, not just what he says” is a familiar refrain. He has previously made high-profile bullish calls, then sold out near the top. So it’s hard to know whether this post reflects a cool-headed view of the macro picture—or another case of “talking bearish while doing something else.”
#Hayes
Arthur Hayes (one of the key inventors of perpetual futures) posted a very short message on X today, along with a chart of the U.S. dollar liquidity index. The gist was just one sentence:
“Dollar liquidity is rebuilding. Expect BTC to weaken until the Fed and/or banks start expanding their balance sheets.”
What’s interesting is that he didn’t deny liquidity is returning. Instead, he treated “liquidity rebuilding” and “balance-sheet expansion” as two separate things. In other words, some money is flowing back in, but until the Fed or banks actually step in and expand their balance sheets, that inflow won’t be enough to push BTC higher.
Against today’s backdrop, the timing of the post is intriguing—Binance was just hacked, market sentiment is fearful, and BTC is under pressure around $77,000. When a veteran who has lived through multiple cycles makes a bearish call at a moment like this, plenty of people are naturally going to take note.
Still, “watch what Hayes does, not just what he says” is a familiar refrain. He has previously made high-profile bullish calls, then sold out near the top. So it’s hard to know whether this post reflects a cool-headed view of the macro picture—or another case of “talking bearish while doing something else.”
