Saylor spends $65M on BTC, but $208M on buybacks
I’m on the bullish side, but I wouldn’t chase at this price. Here’s why.
First, the numbers.
I went through Strategy’s 8-K filed on November 2. In the week from October 26 to November 1, it bought 811 BTC for $65.5 million, at an average price of $80,846.
In the same week, it spent $208.2 million buying back its own STRC preferred shares: 2.09 million shares at $99.52 apiece.
Put simply, the money spent on buybacks was more than three times what it spent on crypto. Over the past two weeks, buybacks have totaled $413.1 million—more than six times its spending on crypto over the same period.
Where did the money come from? It sold 1,178,552 shares of MSTR common stock, raising $164 million. It used $65.5 million to buy crypto, while the remaining $98.5 million sits in cash.
After crunching the numbers, Strategy now holds 849,327 BTC, acquired for a total cost of $64.08 billion at an average price of $75,451. That’s about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
As for the current price, as I write this, BTC is at $77,219, down 1.28% in 24 hours. The high was $78,853 and the low was $76,641. Futures trading volume is $9.18 billion, and the funding rate is 0.01%—not overheated.
The bull case.
Holdings are at an all-time high, and the conviction hasn’t changed. And Strategy isn’t the only one buying: BitMine also added 8,573 ETH that week, bringing its total holdings to 6.06 million ETH—just shy of 5% of the total ETH supply.
Around the time of Saylor’s third-quarter report, he said the next bull market had already begun, with BTC still about 21% above its 200-week moving average.
Trump’s camp is once again sounding optimistic on X, saying gains will exceed expectations. BTC is also at the top of today’s social trends chart.
The bear case.
The coins bought at an average price of $80,846 are now worth $77,219. That latest batch is already down more than 4% on paper, and Saylor himself is underwater on his cost basis.
What’s more, spending on preferred-share buybacks far exceeded spending on crypto. That suggests he’s more focused on shoring up his financing tools than blindly adding to his position.
The week before, it didn’t buy a single coin. Buying and pausing like this hardly looks like someone determined to go all in.
My take.
I’m on the bullish side, but I’m not chasing here.
It’s true that holdings are at an all-time high, and it’s also true that the balance sheet is being repaired. Those things aren’t at odds: one is about conviction, the other about staying in the game.
The most important number isn’t 811 coins; it’s the $75,451 average cost across its holdings. As long as the price stays above that level, Saylor’s whole setup remains intact.
Scenarios.
If BTC gets back above $78,853 and holds, the bulls regain the initiative, with $80,000 as the next upside target.
If it falls below $76,641 and can’t hold today’s low, the next level down is the $75,451 average cost. If even that breaks, the bullish story will need to be rewritten.
What am I going to do?
I’ve taken a small position. If BTC falls below $76,641, I’m out. If it gets back above $78,853, I’ll see whether to add.
If it falls below $75,451, I won’t need anyone to tell me—I’ll admit I was wrong and get out first.
Will BTC reclaim $78,853, putting the bulls back in control as it heads for $80,000, or break below $76,641 and test the $75,451 cost basis? I’m betting on a reclaim of $78,853. What about you?
$BTC $MSTR $ETH
#比特币 #Strategy
I’m on the bullish side, but I wouldn’t chase at this price. Here’s why.
First, the numbers.
I went through Strategy’s 8-K filed on November 2. In the week from October 26 to November 1, it bought 811 BTC for $65.5 million, at an average price of $80,846.
In the same week, it spent $208.2 million buying back its own STRC preferred shares: 2.09 million shares at $99.52 apiece.
Put simply, the money spent on buybacks was more than three times what it spent on crypto. Over the past two weeks, buybacks have totaled $413.1 million—more than six times its spending on crypto over the same period.
Where did the money come from? It sold 1,178,552 shares of MSTR common stock, raising $164 million. It used $65.5 million to buy crypto, while the remaining $98.5 million sits in cash.
After crunching the numbers, Strategy now holds 849,327 BTC, acquired for a total cost of $64.08 billion at an average price of $75,451. That’s about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
As for the current price, as I write this, BTC is at $77,219, down 1.28% in 24 hours. The high was $78,853 and the low was $76,641. Futures trading volume is $9.18 billion, and the funding rate is 0.01%—not overheated.
The bull case.
Holdings are at an all-time high, and the conviction hasn’t changed. And Strategy isn’t the only one buying: BitMine also added 8,573 ETH that week, bringing its total holdings to 6.06 million ETH—just shy of 5% of the total ETH supply.
Around the time of Saylor’s third-quarter report, he said the next bull market had already begun, with BTC still about 21% above its 200-week moving average.
Trump’s camp is once again sounding optimistic on X, saying gains will exceed expectations. BTC is also at the top of today’s social trends chart.
The bear case.
The coins bought at an average price of $80,846 are now worth $77,219. That latest batch is already down more than 4% on paper, and Saylor himself is underwater on his cost basis.
What’s more, spending on preferred-share buybacks far exceeded spending on crypto. That suggests he’s more focused on shoring up his financing tools than blindly adding to his position.
The week before, it didn’t buy a single coin. Buying and pausing like this hardly looks like someone determined to go all in.
My take.
I’m on the bullish side, but I’m not chasing here.
It’s true that holdings are at an all-time high, and it’s also true that the balance sheet is being repaired. Those things aren’t at odds: one is about conviction, the other about staying in the game.
The most important number isn’t 811 coins; it’s the $75,451 average cost across its holdings. As long as the price stays above that level, Saylor’s whole setup remains intact.
Scenarios.
If BTC gets back above $78,853 and holds, the bulls regain the initiative, with $80,000 as the next upside target.
If it falls below $76,641 and can’t hold today’s low, the next level down is the $75,451 average cost. If even that breaks, the bullish story will need to be rewritten.
What am I going to do?
I’ve taken a small position. If BTC falls below $76,641, I’m out. If it gets back above $78,853, I’ll see whether to add.
If it falls below $75,451, I won’t need anyone to tell me—I’ll admit I was wrong and get out first.
Will BTC reclaim $78,853, putting the bulls back in control as it heads for $80,000, or break below $76,641 and test the $75,451 cost basis? I’m betting on a reclaim of $78,853. What about you?
$BTC $MSTR $ETH
#比特币 #Strategy
