Futures market: look at the structure before discussing direction
In the futures market, I only look at how crowded positions are, not group chat messages.
For futures, I only care about three sets of numbers. Everything else is noise.
1. BTC 77227, 24h 76664-78878, change -1.30%.
2. BTC open interest notional: 7.63 billion USD, 24h +2.30%
3. Account-wide long/short ratio: 2.62
My take: Funding at 0.0100% is close to zero, and the long/short ratio is 2.62. Leverage hasn't picked a side. If it hasn't picked a side, don't use high leverage to pick one for it.
Trading range (based on current price ± structure, not an old chart):
- Momentum zone: consider chasing only after price moves above 77,845; otherwise it's a false breakout
- Buy the pullback: 76,300-76,763; don't buy if it breaks below
- No-trade zone: if the 1h candle closes below 75,837, skip this trade
My position: I don't try to catch the first falling knife. Until the drop is accompanied by a decline in open interest, buying on the way down is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are left blank.
When meme coins aren't outperforming BTC, are you still holding them?
#BTC #合约风控 #TradingWatch
Useful takeaway: OI is the notional value of open positions, not trading volume.
Idea: If funding turns positive and the long/short ratio is >1.15, first note that positions are crowded; don't write “chase the rally.”
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 77,227 -1.30% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,262 -0.66% ETH/BTC 0.02929
S&P 500 7,541 -1.76% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,164 -3.84% Yahoo 5-day
USD 102 -0.40% DXY 5-day
VIX 21.15 +20.72% Yahoo
Funding 0.0100% Open interest 7.63B (24h +2.30) Long/short 2.6219 Binance USDⓈ-M
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not an instruction to place a trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
In the futures market, I only look at how crowded positions are, not group chat messages.
For futures, I only care about three sets of numbers. Everything else is noise.
1. BTC 77227, 24h 76664-78878, change -1.30%.
2. BTC open interest notional: 7.63 billion USD, 24h +2.30%
3. Account-wide long/short ratio: 2.62
My take: Funding at 0.0100% is close to zero, and the long/short ratio is 2.62. Leverage hasn't picked a side. If it hasn't picked a side, don't use high leverage to pick one for it.
Trading range (based on current price ± structure, not an old chart):
- Momentum zone: consider chasing only after price moves above 77,845; otherwise it's a false breakout
- Buy the pullback: 76,300-76,763; don't buy if it breaks below
- No-trade zone: if the 1h candle closes below 75,837, skip this trade
My position: I don't try to catch the first falling knife. Until the drop is accompanied by a decline in open interest, buying on the way down is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are left blank.
When meme coins aren't outperforming BTC, are you still holding them?
#BTC #合约风控 #TradingWatch
Useful takeaway: OI is the notional value of open positions, not trading volume.
Idea: If funding turns positive and the long/short ratio is >1.15, first note that positions are crowded; don't write “chase the rally.”
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 77,227 -1.30% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,262 -0.66% ETH/BTC 0.02929
S&P 500 7,541 -1.76% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,164 -3.84% Yahoo 5-day
USD 102 -0.40% DXY 5-day
VIX 21.15 +20.72% Yahoo
Funding 0.0100% Open interest 7.63B (24h +2.30) Long/short 2.6219 Binance USDⓈ-M
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not an instruction to place a trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL