This week’s calendar is worth looking at before the market itself, because every step ahead could change our view of “how much longer this will matter.”
First, the schedule—all dates are based on official calendars checked on November 2: U.S. midterm elections and JOLTS job openings arrive together on November 3, nonfarm payrolls on November 6, CPI on November 10, and the FOMC meeting on December 8–9. In other words, the next month is largely about “the data speaking first, then the Fed responding,” and any surprise along the way could be enough to make the market reprice things.
Now for the backdrop, based on October 30 closing figures: VIX at 19.42, DXY around 101.88, and the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.93%. Put simply: fear isn’t especially high, but money isn’t exactly cheap either, and the tightening overhang hasn’t lifted. BTC has recently been hovering around $77,300–$77,800, without yet giving a clear indication of either direction.
Here’s how I see it: the midterm elections will set the policy mood; JOLTS and nonfarm payrolls will show how tight the labor market is; CPI will tell us whether inflation is really cooling; and then the FOMC will put it all together into an interest-rate path. If any one piece goes off course, the other side’s scenario will have to be rewritten.
So I’m keeping both possibilities in mind: one, the data gradually cools, expectations for further tightening ease at the margin, and risk assets get some breathing room; or two, the data stays hot, rates stay higher for longer, and volatility remains elevated for a while. ETF flows for November 2 haven’t been released yet, so I won’t make up a number—I’ll check once they’re out.
Which data point are you watching most closely this week: nonfarm payrolls or CPI?
Data shared for informational purposes, not investment advice. #Macro #FederalReserve
First, the schedule—all dates are based on official calendars checked on November 2: U.S. midterm elections and JOLTS job openings arrive together on November 3, nonfarm payrolls on November 6, CPI on November 10, and the FOMC meeting on December 8–9. In other words, the next month is largely about “the data speaking first, then the Fed responding,” and any surprise along the way could be enough to make the market reprice things.
Now for the backdrop, based on October 30 closing figures: VIX at 19.42, DXY around 101.88, and the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.93%. Put simply: fear isn’t especially high, but money isn’t exactly cheap either, and the tightening overhang hasn’t lifted. BTC has recently been hovering around $77,300–$77,800, without yet giving a clear indication of either direction.
Here’s how I see it: the midterm elections will set the policy mood; JOLTS and nonfarm payrolls will show how tight the labor market is; CPI will tell us whether inflation is really cooling; and then the FOMC will put it all together into an interest-rate path. If any one piece goes off course, the other side’s scenario will have to be rewritten.
So I’m keeping both possibilities in mind: one, the data gradually cools, expectations for further tightening ease at the margin, and risk assets get some breathing room; or two, the data stays hot, rates stay higher for longer, and volatility remains elevated for a while. ETF flows for November 2 haven’t been released yet, so I won’t make up a number—I’ll check once they’re out.
Which data point are you watching most closely this week: nonfarm payrolls or CPI?
Data shared for informational purposes, not investment advice. #Macro #FederalReserve