Oil prices crashed last night: Hopes for US-Iran talks grew, with WTI plunging 7.36% in a single day to close at $96.46, and Brent down 7.63%. In Trump's own words: "Oil prices are plunging like a rock, the biggest one-day drop in history."

But risk assets didn't breathe a sigh of relief—the Nasdaq 100 has pulled back 10% from its October high, officially entering correction territory, with semiconductors leading the decline. Kioxia said, "The NAND price-hike cycle is nearing its end," and Sandisk promptly flash-crashed 6.5%. What the market has always feared isn't war—it's the bill for AI valuations.

Earnings were surreal, though: Palantir's revenue surged 96%, and US commercial revenue jumped 148%. Karp said they doubled the business in a year. Apple's new CEO beat expectations in the first quarter, but a closer look shows it was thanks to higher iPhone and Mac prices offsetting memory costs. In the end, consumers are still footing the AI bill.

On the crypto front, Strategy bought another 810 $BTC (about $63 million). Even after a drop like this, it's still dollar-cost averaging. More concretely, Pyth is supplying all of Kalshi's midterm election indices with data for settlement. Election results will be settled directly on-chain—that's more convincing than saying "mass adoption" a hundred times.

US midterm elections are being held today, and the nonfarm payrolls report is due this week. The odds of a rate hike in December are above 70%. Keep your hands off the button and watch from the sidelines with a light position.

NFA DYOR

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