#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？
October’s Nonfarm Payrolls “Disappeared”—Is the Fed Flying Blind While BTC Swims Naked?
$AGT $HOT $HAEDAL
October’s payrolls are finally in: -105,000, the biggest monthly drop in recent history. But more explosive than the number itself is this: the report nearly didn’t exist at all.
During the government shutdown, the BLS couldn’t even complete its household survey, and unemployment data “cannot be collected retroactively.” The White House even said outright that the October jobs report might disappear permanently. Meanwhile, November’s payrolls report was postponed until December 16—after the Fed’s December 9–10 policy meeting. In other words, when making its final rate decision of the year, the Fed won’t have the latest employment data in hand.
Powell himself admitted the Fed is “flying blind.”
What does this mean for crypto? The anchor for liquidity expectations has shifted from “data-driven” to “a guessing game.” BTC’s monthly candle closed down 3.69% in October, mainly due to tightening global liquidity at the margin and deleveraging. When even the Fed doesn’t know the labor market’s true condition, any one-sided bet on rate cuts is essentially a gamble with no referee.
Don’t treat “rate cuts” as the default. The data is gone, and volatility is the only certainty.
#美联储 #非农 #BTC☀ #宏观交易
October’s Nonfarm Payrolls “Disappeared”—Is the Fed Flying Blind While BTC Swims Naked?
$AGT $HOT $HAEDAL
October’s payrolls are finally in: -105,000, the biggest monthly drop in recent history. But more explosive than the number itself is this: the report nearly didn’t exist at all.
During the government shutdown, the BLS couldn’t even complete its household survey, and unemployment data “cannot be collected retroactively.” The White House even said outright that the October jobs report might disappear permanently. Meanwhile, November’s payrolls report was postponed until December 16—after the Fed’s December 9–10 policy meeting. In other words, when making its final rate decision of the year, the Fed won’t have the latest employment data in hand.
Powell himself admitted the Fed is “flying blind.”
What does this mean for crypto? The anchor for liquidity expectations has shifted from “data-driven” to “a guessing game.” BTC’s monthly candle closed down 3.69% in October, mainly due to tightening global liquidity at the margin and deleveraging. When even the Fed doesn’t know the labor market’s true condition, any one-sided bet on rate cuts is essentially a gamble with no referee.
Don’t treat “rate cuts” as the default. The data is gone, and volatility is the only certainty.
#美联储 #非农 #BTC☀ #宏观交易