🥇 Morning Gold Brief | November 3
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📊 Key readings
· COMEX gold price: $3,954.5/oz (+1.80%)
· Shanghai Gold Au99.99: 849.1 yuan/g (+1.18%)
· US Dollar Index (DXY): 101.78
· US 10Y Treasury yield: 4.91% (20-day change: -39 bp)
· Proxy real interest rate (10Y−CPI): +1.21%
· Brent crude oil: $104.29
· Federal funds rate upper bound: 4.00%
· CPI YoY: 3.70% PPI: 6.34%
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🔍 Gold price drivers (current)
· Cross-asset capital flows: -51 (bearish)
· US Treasury yield trend: +47 (bullish)
· Policy pricing -22 (bearish)
· Risk aversion +22 (bullish)
· Inflation direction -16 (bearish)
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🎯 Market pricing for the next FOMC meeting
· Rate hike 74.5% / no change 25.5% / rate cut 0.9%
· Pricing as of: 2026-11-03
🏦 Central bank net gold purchases over the past 12 months: approx. +311 tonnes
📉 U.S. debt/GDP: 121.2%
😰 VIX: 21.1 ｜ SPDR Gold ETF holdings: 1,041.7 tonnes
💡 In a nutshell: The real interest rate (10Y−CPI) is a direct anchor for gold prices; its current reading, together with FOMC pricing, determines the short-term direction
What’s your take on gold today? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇
⚠️ Data compiled from public sources; this is not investment advice