Consensus has already lifted profit expectations to more than 80% year over year, and the most accurate analysts are calling for even more—the earnings report has already lost half its margin for error to elevated expectations 📈
ConocoPhillips ($COP) will report Q3 2026 results before the U.S. market opens on 11-05. The earnings call is scheduled for 12:00 ET on 11-05 (01:00 Beijing time on 11-06).
Consensus EPS is approximately $2.97 to $3.05, versus $1.61 in the same period last year, up about 84.5% to 89.4% year over year. Revenue is estimated at approximately $18.2 billion to $18.56 billion, versus about $15.52 billion a year ago, up roughly 17.5% to 19.6%. Last quarter, EPS was $3.24, beating consensus. The company has beaten expectations in three of the past four quarters, by an average of about 7.04%. Zacks ESP is +4.50%, the rating is 1, and consensus estimates have been revised upward by about 25.27% over the past 30 days.
The oil-price backdrop in Q3 saw prices climb month by month: average WTI was $80.46 in July, $83.90 in August, and $97.31 in September. Key points to unpack on the call are production and full-year guidance: full-year production guidance is 2.295 to 2.325 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with capital expenditures of $12 billion to $12.5 billion. This is also the first quarterly report since the new CEO took office.
My view breaks down into three scenarios: If results beat expectations and full-year guidance holds, the narrative that higher oil prices are translating into profits can continue. If results are in line with consensus but production or guidance softens, treat it as a routine delivery—don't mistake high expectations for a low valuation. If results miss consensus or guidance is lowered, reassess the margin for error against expectations that have already been raised so high. Don't chase the first premarket move; wait for the call to clarify production, costs, and full-year guidance before deciding.
Data as of: 2026-11-02 23:06 UTC
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
ConocoPhillips ($COP) will report Q3 2026 results before the U.S. market opens on 11-05. The earnings call is scheduled for 12:00 ET on 11-05 (01:00 Beijing time on 11-06).
Consensus EPS is approximately $2.97 to $3.05, versus $1.61 in the same period last year, up about 84.5% to 89.4% year over year. Revenue is estimated at approximately $18.2 billion to $18.56 billion, versus about $15.52 billion a year ago, up roughly 17.5% to 19.6%. Last quarter, EPS was $3.24, beating consensus. The company has beaten expectations in three of the past four quarters, by an average of about 7.04%. Zacks ESP is +4.50%, the rating is 1, and consensus estimates have been revised upward by about 25.27% over the past 30 days.
The oil-price backdrop in Q3 saw prices climb month by month: average WTI was $80.46 in July, $83.90 in August, and $97.31 in September. Key points to unpack on the call are production and full-year guidance: full-year production guidance is 2.295 to 2.325 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with capital expenditures of $12 billion to $12.5 billion. This is also the first quarterly report since the new CEO took office.
My view breaks down into three scenarios: If results beat expectations and full-year guidance holds, the narrative that higher oil prices are translating into profits can continue. If results are in line with consensus but production or guidance softens, treat it as a routine delivery—don't mistake high expectations for a low valuation. If results miss consensus or guidance is lowered, reassess the margin for error against expectations that have already been raised so high. Don't chase the first premarket move; wait for the call to clarify production, costs, and full-year guidance before deciding.
Data as of: 2026-11-02 23:06 UTC
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
