Polymarket has launched a pre-IPO perpetual market for Anthropic, with 10x leverage, no closing time, and no expiration. Sounds pretty cool. I have just one question: where does the price come from?
Anthropic isn’t publicly listed yet, so there’s no public share price to anchor it to. Even @polytutor puts it bluntly: where this thing trades is entirely determined by the order book and funding rates. Put simply, you’re trading other people’s sentiment in the order book, not Anthropic’s stock price.
Here’s an even funnier bit. That “6% arbitrage” between Entropy and trade.xyz that people were hyping a couple of days ago? Someone broke down the numbers, and it turns out it was just based on different assumptions about the number of shares. At 16.94 billion shares, xyz is 4.23% more expensive; at 16.2 billion shares, it’s actually 0.30% cheaper—the sign flips completely. The so-called arbitrage is really just a bet on the final share count. Someone even wrote a long post about the oracle problem with pre-IPO perpetuals, using the SpaceX crash on ventuals as an example. That’s the real issue.
Now look at the incentive design: a $50,000 trading competition runs until November 16, Anthropic trades count triple, and the top 50 split the prizes. Translation: they’re encouraging you to rack up volume on a market with no anchor. The platform collects fees, market makers pocket the spread, and everyone knows who gets left holding the bag.
The official account’s post got around 109,000 views, and the replies were full of “now live.” Have fun, but don’t treat this like buying Anthropic stock early. Read the rules and check how the mark price will switch over on the day it lists before you turn on leverage.
#Polymarket #Anthropic
Anthropic isn’t publicly listed yet, so there’s no public share price to anchor it to. Even @polytutor puts it bluntly: where this thing trades is entirely determined by the order book and funding rates. Put simply, you’re trading other people’s sentiment in the order book, not Anthropic’s stock price.
Here’s an even funnier bit. That “6% arbitrage” between Entropy and trade.xyz that people were hyping a couple of days ago? Someone broke down the numbers, and it turns out it was just based on different assumptions about the number of shares. At 16.94 billion shares, xyz is 4.23% more expensive; at 16.2 billion shares, it’s actually 0.30% cheaper—the sign flips completely. The so-called arbitrage is really just a bet on the final share count. Someone even wrote a long post about the oracle problem with pre-IPO perpetuals, using the SpaceX crash on ventuals as an example. That’s the real issue.
Now look at the incentive design: a $50,000 trading competition runs until November 16, Anthropic trades count triple, and the top 50 split the prizes. Translation: they’re encouraging you to rack up volume on a market with no anchor. The platform collects fees, market makers pocket the spread, and everyone knows who gets left holding the bag.
The official account’s post got around 109,000 views, and the replies were full of “now live.” Have fun, but don’t treat this like buying Anthropic stock early. Read the rules and check how the mark price will switch over on the day it lists before you turn on leverage.
#Polymarket #Anthropic