Voting in the U.S. midterm elections is about to begin. In his final in-person speech before Election Day, Trump spent the first twenty-plus minutes talking about renovations to the Reflecting Pool at the Lincoln Memorial. He even had an aide bring up photos of the stonework and talked about granite for eight minutes. It wasn’t until the twenty-third minute that he mentioned the midterms for the first time.
He left himself some wiggle room in his prediction. His exact words were: “For some reason, the party of the incumbent president always loses the midterms, but we’re giving it a really strong shot this time.”
On Monday morning, prediction market Kalshi put the implied probability of Democrats taking the House at 94%, and the Senate at 74%.
$BTC and $ETH usually look at fund flows first on days like this. Campaign slogans have limited impact on pricing; it’s control of the two chambers of Congress after the results come in that will reshape fiscal and regulatory policy over the next two years.
#宏观 #CryptoMarket
He left himself some wiggle room in his prediction. His exact words were: “For some reason, the party of the incumbent president always loses the midterms, but we’re giving it a really strong shot this time.”
On Monday morning, prediction market Kalshi put the implied probability of Democrats taking the House at 94%, and the Senate at 74%.
$BTC and $ETH usually look at fund flows first on days like this. Campaign slogans have limited impact on pricing; it’s control of the two chambers of Congress after the results come in that will reshape fiscal and regulatory policy over the next two years.
#宏观 #CryptoMarket
