š Beginnerās Guide Series: After a Black Swan, Donāt Rush to Buy the DipāLearn to Read These 3 Signals First
Letās start with the market today: $BTC is around $76,926, down about 1% in 24 hours; $ETH is around $2,252, down about 0.2% in 24 hours; BNB is around $697, down about 1.6%; Solana is around $92, down about 2.3%.
First, look at where the price isādonāt chase the first bounce. After a shock, prices often plunge and then move sideways. If you rush in on the first bullish candle of a rebound, you could easily end up buying halfway up the hill. Wait for the price to stabilize within a range before deciding on a direction.
Second, watch fund flows, not just price movements. There was a notable signal over the past few days: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of around $643 million in a single day, one of the largest outflows since June, ending a period of consecutive inflows. A small price drop isnāt cause for alarm, but consecutive institutional outflows are worth watching more closely. Conversely, slowing outflows and a return to inflows are often early signs that sentiment is stabilizing.
Third, look at liquidations and open interest to distinguish panic from new money entering the market. This shock triggered large-scale futures liquidations. Trading volume surged, but open interest changed little, suggesting that existing positions were mostly flushed out rather than large amounts of new money entering to go long. High trading volume doesnāt necessarily mean the trend is strongāyou need to consider open interest too.
In short: after a black swan, start by doing lessātrade less and observe more. Wait for price, fund flows, and open interest to point in the same direction before acting, and keep your position smaller than usual.
Which signal do you usually check first when reviewing the market: price, ETF fund flows, or liquidation data? Share your approach in the comments š
#ęÆē¹åø #å åÆęå¦ #MarketWatch
ā ļø Personal opinion. DYOR and be aware of the risks.
Letās start with the market today: $BTC is around $76,926, down about 1% in 24 hours; $ETH is around $2,252, down about 0.2% in 24 hours; BNB is around $697, down about 1.6%; Solana is around $92, down about 2.3%.
First, look at where the price isādonāt chase the first bounce. After a shock, prices often plunge and then move sideways. If you rush in on the first bullish candle of a rebound, you could easily end up buying halfway up the hill. Wait for the price to stabilize within a range before deciding on a direction.
Second, watch fund flows, not just price movements. There was a notable signal over the past few days: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of around $643 million in a single day, one of the largest outflows since June, ending a period of consecutive inflows. A small price drop isnāt cause for alarm, but consecutive institutional outflows are worth watching more closely. Conversely, slowing outflows and a return to inflows are often early signs that sentiment is stabilizing.
Third, look at liquidations and open interest to distinguish panic from new money entering the market. This shock triggered large-scale futures liquidations. Trading volume surged, but open interest changed little, suggesting that existing positions were mostly flushed out rather than large amounts of new money entering to go long. High trading volume doesnāt necessarily mean the trend is strongāyou need to consider open interest too.
In short: after a black swan, start by doing lessātrade less and observe more. Wait for price, fund flows, and open interest to point in the same direction before acting, and keep your position smaller than usual.
Which signal do you usually check first when reviewing the market: price, ETF fund flows, or liquidation data? Share your approach in the comments š
#ęÆē¹åø #å åÆęå¦ #MarketWatch
ā ļø Personal opinion. DYOR and be aware of the risks.