$BTC
Currently at 1,000 BTC points
Keep up the good work
Currently at 1,000 BTC points
Keep up the good work
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交易员刺客
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BearishBTC is about to reach resistance on the 1-hour chart! It’s time to enter a short! Trade plan 공개!
Let’s start with the technical picture. After BTC plunged through the $80,000 mark, the overall structure has turned decisively bearish. The $78,500 level is the retest confirmation line after the breakdown, sitting just below the round-number $80,000 level. The area from $78,800 to $80,000 is packed with trapped buyers, and all the moving averages have crossed down and are pressing lower. If the bulls were really confident, they would have reclaimed $80,000 during the rebound. This low-volume bounce is a classic bull trap. Below, $76,500–$76,000 is a liquidation danger zone for the bulls; once panic selling starts, a sharp wick down could come very quickly.
Now for the macro picture: the broader environment offers no relief. The Fed is holding firm on inflation, and the probability of a rate hike in December is still above 70%. Tech stocks are suffering a brutal deleveraging, with Intel plunging 30% and dragging the Nasdaq down with it. Institutions are selling highly liquid assets indiscriminately to meet margin calls. Cash is extremely tight in the market, and the ETF cost basis is way up at $81,500. Everyone above is waiting to break even, and there’s simply no fresh money coming in to bail them out.
The trade plan is set: enter a short directly near $78,500, and add another position if it rebounds to $78,800. Set a firm stop-loss above $80,000. If price holds above $80,000 on strong volume, the bearish thesis is invalidated—accept the loss unconditionally and exit. The first target is $76,500; if that breaks, the next target is $75,000. At $76,500, close most of the position to lock in profits, then trail the stop-loss lower on the remainder.
Keep position size to 10%, with leverage capped at 3x. If price hasn’t reached the level, sit tight in cash and watch. Follow the rules—never hold and hope. $BTC #btc
Let’s start with the technical picture. After BTC plunged through the $80,000 mark, the overall structure has turned decisively bearish. The $78,500 level is the retest confirmation line after the breakdown, sitting just below the round-number $80,000 level. The area from $78,800 to $80,000 is packed with trapped buyers, and all the moving averages have crossed down and are pressing lower. If the bulls were really confident, they would have reclaimed $80,000 during the rebound. This low-volume bounce is a classic bull trap. Below, $76,500–$76,000 is a liquidation danger zone for the bulls; once panic selling starts, a sharp wick down could come very quickly.
Now for the macro picture: the broader environment offers no relief. The Fed is holding firm on inflation, and the probability of a rate hike in December is still above 70%. Tech stocks are suffering a brutal deleveraging, with Intel plunging 30% and dragging the Nasdaq down with it. Institutions are selling highly liquid assets indiscriminately to meet margin calls. Cash is extremely tight in the market, and the ETF cost basis is way up at $81,500. Everyone above is waiting to break even, and there’s simply no fresh money coming in to bail them out.
The trade plan is set: enter a short directly near $78,500, and add another position if it rebounds to $78,800. Set a firm stop-loss above $80,000. If price holds above $80,000 on strong volume, the bearish thesis is invalidated—accept the loss unconditionally and exit. The first target is $76,500; if that breaks, the next target is $75,000. At $76,500, close most of the position to lock in profits, then trail the stop-loss lower on the remainder.
Keep position size to 10%, with leverage capped at 3x. If price hasn’t reached the level, sit tight in cash and watch. Follow the rules—never hold and hope. $BTC #btc
