#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ 11We won't know until November 6. But last week, the Fed just held steady, keeping interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. We even saw the first instance in 34 years of regional Fed presidents and governors joining forces to dissent and call for a rate hike.
The core logic is clear:
A rate cut is off the table: If October payroll growth is strong, combined with PCE inflation at 3.1%, the Fed will stop cutting rates altogether in December. High interest rates will continue to weigh on tech stock valuations, while a resilient economy supports consumer and industrial stocks.
A rate cut is possible: Only if payroll growth falls well short of expectations and unemployment surges will preventing a recession take priority over fighting inflation for the Fed. At that point, Treasury yields will turn lower, and money will flow back into growth stocks.
Don't guess at the macro picture—understand the cost of capital. If interest rates don't fall, the stock market will see only sector rotation. Watch the labor force participation rate and wage growth figures released on November 6; those are the real tipping points that will determine how the valuations of the stocks you hold are reshaped.
$ARIA $LYN $EVAA
The core logic is clear:
A rate cut is off the table: If October payroll growth is strong, combined with PCE inflation at 3.1%, the Fed will stop cutting rates altogether in December. High interest rates will continue to weigh on tech stock valuations, while a resilient economy supports consumer and industrial stocks.
A rate cut is possible: Only if payroll growth falls well short of expectations and unemployment surges will preventing a recession take priority over fighting inflation for the Fed. At that point, Treasury yields will turn lower, and money will flow back into growth stocks.
Don't guess at the macro picture—understand the cost of capital. If interest rates don't fall, the stock market will see only sector rotation. Watch the labor force participation rate and wage growth figures released on November 6; those are the real tipping points that will determine how the valuations of the stocks you hold are reshaped.
$ARIA $LYN $EVAA
