【 $MSTR holding nearly 850,000 $BTC , Mizuho still sees 27% upside】
Mizuho maintains its $165 price target for Strategy (MSTR), implying about 26% upside from the closing price of $130.51. Its optimism is supported by a significantly stronger balance sheet: net leverage has fallen to 2.4%, and roughly $5.07 billion in assets could cover 3.4 years of dividend and interest payments. On November 2, the company also disclosed that it bought another 811 BTC last week, bringing its holdings to 849,327 BTC.
What shareholders should pay most attention to is that growth in BTC holdings does not necessarily mean growth in value per share. This year, Strategy raised about $21.2 billion, and its total BTC holdings grew by 26%, yet BTC Yield was negative 3.7%. This shows that the share dilution from expanded financing has already outweighed the increase in BTC held per share.
In my view, the core of Mizuho’s bullish case is this: cash reserves reduce the pressure to sell coins or repay debt, while MSTR can still amplify gains when BTC rises. But investors should not judge the stock solely by how many coins it holds; they should also consider financing costs, share dilution, and whether BTC held per share can return to positive growth. The $165 target is within reach, but what will determine the quality of any rally is whether Strategy can once again give each share a larger share of its Bitcoin holdings.
Mizuho maintains its $165 price target for Strategy (MSTR), implying about 26% upside from the closing price of $130.51. Its optimism is supported by a significantly stronger balance sheet: net leverage has fallen to 2.4%, and roughly $5.07 billion in assets could cover 3.4 years of dividend and interest payments. On November 2, the company also disclosed that it bought another 811 BTC last week, bringing its holdings to 849,327 BTC.
What shareholders should pay most attention to is that growth in BTC holdings does not necessarily mean growth in value per share. This year, Strategy raised about $21.2 billion, and its total BTC holdings grew by 26%, yet BTC Yield was negative 3.7%. This shows that the share dilution from expanded financing has already outweighed the increase in BTC held per share.
In my view, the core of Mizuho’s bullish case is this: cash reserves reduce the pressure to sell coins or repay debt, while MSTR can still amplify gains when BTC rises. But investors should not judge the stock solely by how many coins it holds; they should also consider financing costs, share dilution, and whether BTC held per share can return to positive growth. The $165 target is within reach, but what will determine the quality of any rally is whether Strategy can once again give each share a larger share of its Bitcoin holdings.