For the stablecoin leader’s earnings report, the key question isn’t whether it grew, but whether profits can keep pace after its market share declined.

Circle will report its third-quarter results at 8 a.m. Eastern Time on November 4. Its second-quarter results showed approximately $73.3 billion in USDC at quarter-end, up 19% year over year; revenue and reserve income of approximately $701 million; net income of $48 million; adjusted EBITDA of $143 million; diluted earnings per share of $0.18; and an official market share of approximately 27%. By the end of October, publicly circulating supply stood at roughly $70 billion to $72.3 billion. Wall Street expects third-quarter revenue of approximately $797 million and earnings per share of around $0.40. The related stock closed at $72.54 on Friday, well below its level in early October. The stablecoin narrative is shifting from expansion to delivering results, with $BTC still serving as a backdrop for risk appetite.

Do you care more about whether USDC’s share can recover, or would you rather focus first on profit margins and guidance?