Something happened again in the Arabian Gulf today. An oil tanker was hit on its port side by two unidentified projectiles 72 nautical miles off Ras al-Khafji, Saudi Arabia. Thankfully, all crew members are safe, and there was no oil spill.
Even more surreal, oil prices fell by over 3% despite the incident. The thinking is that Trump has softened his stance, giving the mediators in Doha more time, while both the U.S. and Iran are signaling they’re open to talks. But the midterm elections are tomorrow, and Israel has been urging him every day to “strike immediately after the election.” Meanwhile, The Atlantic has reported that Trump grilled the defense secretary and chairman of the Joint Chiefs internally about their performance—a strong sign he’s looking for scapegoats.
Iran hasn’t softened at all: no reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without sanctions relief, and ships using “unauthorized routes” do so at their own risk. Both sides are talking tough, but they’re also calculating their moves behind the scenes.
The physical market doesn’t lie: ADNOC says nearly 1 billion barrels have been drawn from global inventories since the incident in the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel inventories have fallen to their lowest level for this time of year in 35 years. Goldman Sachs has raised its December Brent target from $90 to $105, with an extreme scenario of $140. Paper prices are betting on diplomacy; inventories are telling the real story.
After Binance withdrawals resumed, there was another $3.6 billion in net outflows on Sunday. Even covering 95% of the losses hasn’t fully restored confidence. But $BTC climbed back to $78,600, ZEC led the major coins, and the market seems to be saying: the biggest bomb has already gone off.
On the eve of the election, watch more and move less. Don’t bet on a one-way move.
NFA DYOR
#原油 #比特币 #中东局势 #中期选举 #Federal Reserve
Even more surreal, oil prices fell by over 3% despite the incident. The thinking is that Trump has softened his stance, giving the mediators in Doha more time, while both the U.S. and Iran are signaling they’re open to talks. But the midterm elections are tomorrow, and Israel has been urging him every day to “strike immediately after the election.” Meanwhile, The Atlantic has reported that Trump grilled the defense secretary and chairman of the Joint Chiefs internally about their performance—a strong sign he’s looking for scapegoats.
Iran hasn’t softened at all: no reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without sanctions relief, and ships using “unauthorized routes” do so at their own risk. Both sides are talking tough, but they’re also calculating their moves behind the scenes.
The physical market doesn’t lie: ADNOC says nearly 1 billion barrels have been drawn from global inventories since the incident in the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel inventories have fallen to their lowest level for this time of year in 35 years. Goldman Sachs has raised its December Brent target from $90 to $105, with an extreme scenario of $140. Paper prices are betting on diplomacy; inventories are telling the real story.
After Binance withdrawals resumed, there was another $3.6 billion in net outflows on Sunday. Even covering 95% of the losses hasn’t fully restored confidence. But $BTC climbed back to $78,600, ZEC led the major coins, and the market seems to be saying: the biggest bomb has already gone off.
On the eve of the election, watch more and move less. Don’t bet on a one-way move.
NFA DYOR
#原油 #比特币 #中东局势 #中期选举 #Federal Reserve