#xrp XRP at a crossroads! Is $1.2643 the buyers’ last line of defense, or will another downward impulse follow?
$XRP/USDT | Weekly Trading Plan | 02 November 2026
XRP is trading around $1.2513, and the market is gradually squeezing between local liquidity levels.
Buyers tried to recover the price after the SSL sweep at $1.1991, but the move toward $1.2643 failed to gain traction. Sellers seized the initiative again.
The key question now is: will we see another sweep of lower liquidity, or can buyers change the structure?
Let’s break down both scenarios.
🔴 1. Market Context — HTF Bias
W1: The global structure remains bearish. After the all-time high of $3.6646, the market formed a prolonged downward correction.
D1: A strong impulse from $0.9844 to $1.7010 followed. However, the subsequent decline brought the price back to $1.25. There is no sustained reversal yet.
H4: The sequence of Lower High / Lower Low remains intact. The $1.1991 low became an important point of buyer reaction, but the recovery has not yet changed the HTF Bias.
Conclusion: sellers remain in control, but entering SHORT after the decline has already happened is not the best idea.
🎯 2. Key Levels & Liquidity
$1.2643 — local BSL and nearest resistance.
$1.2555–1.2643 — potential supply zone.
$1.2513 — current trading area.
$1.2456 — nearest local support.
$1.2418 — local SSL.
$1.1991 — significant lower liquidity.
$1.3443 — a higher structural target if the recovery develops.
Dealing Range: $1.2418–1.2643.
Equilibrium: $1.25305.
The price is slightly below EQ, in local Discount.
🧭 3. Narrative A → B → C
Narrative A — what happened?
The market swept lower liquidity around $1.1991, then formed a strong bounce.
The price then reached $1.2643, where buyers failed to sustain further upward Delivery.
The subsequent reaction brought the price back to $1.25.
Narrative B — where is the next Delivery headed?
The main scenario expects the downward move to continue after a possible return to the supply zone.
Potential targets:
$1.2456
$1.2418
$1.1991
Invalidation C: a close above $1.2643 with a confirmed H1/H4 change of structure would weaken the bearish scenario.
🔴 4. Plan A — SHORT
POI: $1.2555–1.2643.
Wait for price to return to the supply zone and for confirmation to appear on M5:
Liquidity Sweep.
Bearish MSS.
Displacement.
FVG/IFVG Retest.
Consider SHORT only after the entire sequence is complete.
Delivery targets: $1.2456 → $1.2418 → $1.1991.
🟢 5. Plan B — LONG
The alternative scenario is a sweep of lower liquidity in the $1.2418–1.2456 area.
If the following appear afterward:
SSL Sweep;
Bullish MSS;
Displacement;
FVG/IFVG Retest on M5,
LONG can be considered.
Potential targets: $1.2555 → $1.2643.
⚠️ 6. Execution & Risk Management
The current price, around $1.2513, is between key zones.
WAIT for now.
We are not setting Entry, SL, or RR: there is no confirmed entry point yet.
A POI is an observation zone, not an instruction to open a position.
Do not chase the price. First wait for a liquidity sweep, then confirmation of structure, and only consider execution after the retest.
📌 Final Outlook
XRP retains a bearish HTF context, but local liquidity has not yet provided full confirmation of the next impulse.
The main focus is on two areas:
$1.2555–1.2643 — potential seller reaction.
$1.2418–1.2456 — potential buyer reaction.
The market must show intent through structure, not just a single impulse candle.
Which scenario will play out first—a BSL sweep above $1.2555 or another SSL test below $1.2418?
Share your forecast in the comments. We’re watching liquidity, waiting for confirmation, and not entering too early.
#XRP #XRPUSDT #CryptoTrading #TradingPlan #BinanceSquare
