Nonfarm payrolls are coming: could the outlook for a December rate hike change?
What crypto markets may fear most in this jobs report is that employment won’t be strong enough to reassure, while inflation remains high enough to keep the Fed from easing.
At 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 6, the U.S. will release its October nonfarm payrolls report. Last month, employment increased by just 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%; however, September core PCE inflation was still 3.1% year over year and rose 0.3% month over month. Inflationary pressure hasn’t gone away.
More noteworthy, although the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% in October, two policymakers supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. The disagreement over rate hikes is now out in the open.
My view is that if employment rebounds significantly this time and wage growth is also strong, expectations for a December rate hike may build. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar would put pressure on BTC. Conversely, weak employment could ease rate-hike concerns—but if it’s weak enough to spark recession fears, risk assets may not welcome the news either.
So besides the number of jobs added, I’ll also be watching wages, the unemployment rate, and revisions to the previous figure. For trading, I’d wait for the data to come out, then see how the dollar and Treasury yields move. There’s no need to chase the first spike or drop. #比特币现货ETF周净流出2.03亿美元
What crypto markets may fear most in this jobs report is that employment won’t be strong enough to reassure, while inflation remains high enough to keep the Fed from easing.
At 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 6, the U.S. will release its October nonfarm payrolls report. Last month, employment increased by just 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%; however, September core PCE inflation was still 3.1% year over year and rose 0.3% month over month. Inflationary pressure hasn’t gone away.
More noteworthy, although the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% in October, two policymakers supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. The disagreement over rate hikes is now out in the open.
My view is that if employment rebounds significantly this time and wage growth is also strong, expectations for a December rate hike may build. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar would put pressure on BTC. Conversely, weak employment could ease rate-hike concerns—but if it’s weak enough to spark recession fears, risk assets may not welcome the news either.
So besides the number of jobs added, I’ll also be watching wages, the unemployment rate, and revisions to the previous figure. For trading, I’d wait for the data to come out, then see how the dollar and Treasury yields move. There’s no need to chase the first spike or drop. #比特币现货ETF周净流出2.03亿美元
