Down 4.4% in the morning, SKHY closed up 3.8%
I’m siding with the bulls, but I’ll only give today’s V-shaped reversal half credit.
First, the numbers.
When Korean stocks opened this morning, SK Hynix followed Friday’s U.S. market jitters over AI earnings and plunged 4.4%, touching 1.355 million won at one point during the session.
But it turned around and closed up 3.8% at 1.472 million won, versus the previous close of 1.418 million won.
The KOSPI did the same: it opened down 2% in the morning, then recovered to close up 1.6%.
The perpetuals market tells the story even more clearly: a 24-hour high of 1115.35, a low of 1020.36, and a current price of 1099.41, up 3.99%. Contract volume was $1.02 billion, and the funding rate was zero—no one was getting squeezed.
Here’s the bull case.
KB Securities’ latest forecast, released today, puts fourth-quarter operating profit at 104 trillion won, up 441% year over year—the first time quarterly profit has topped 100 trillion won.
The third quarter had already set records, with revenue topping 100 trillion won for the first time. HBM4 mass production and shipments are underway, and the company has signed 14 long-term supply agreements. It’s said that capacity is sold out through 2029.
On top of that, the 2 trillion won buyback launched Thursday, and local investors bought a net 518 billion won of Korean stocks today. This V-shaped rebound was backed by real money.
And the bear case.
Put simply, local investors stepped in to support the market today, but foreign investors and retail traders are still selling. This isn’t over yet.
Friday’s shock hasn’t faded either: Intel fell 29%, while Amazon missed expectations on both revenue and EPS. We’ll have to wait until the fourth quarter to see whether higher memory prices translate into real profits.
KB’s 104 trillion won figure is only a forecast, and it’s below Citi’s estimate of 107 trillion won. If the company doesn’t deliver, it’s just a number on paper.
My take.
I’m siding with the bulls, but I’ll only give it half credit.
A V-shaped reversal backed by a buyback and strong local buying carries more weight than a purely sentiment-driven bounce. Ultimately, the HBM story depends on whether Nvidia’s AI computing orders can absorb the supply.
I don’t own this stock. I’ll give today’s V half credit for now, but I won’t touch it until it holds above 1115. If it breaks below 1020, I’ll treat today’s move as a one-day rally propped up by the buyback.
Will it hold above 1115 and confirm a real V-shaped reversal, or will a break below 1020 show that today was just a one-day rally propped up by market support? I’m betting on the former. What about you?
$SKHY $INTC $NVDA
#SK海力士 #Semiconductors
I’m siding with the bulls, but I’ll only give today’s V-shaped reversal half credit.
First, the numbers.
When Korean stocks opened this morning, SK Hynix followed Friday’s U.S. market jitters over AI earnings and plunged 4.4%, touching 1.355 million won at one point during the session.
But it turned around and closed up 3.8% at 1.472 million won, versus the previous close of 1.418 million won.
The KOSPI did the same: it opened down 2% in the morning, then recovered to close up 1.6%.
The perpetuals market tells the story even more clearly: a 24-hour high of 1115.35, a low of 1020.36, and a current price of 1099.41, up 3.99%. Contract volume was $1.02 billion, and the funding rate was zero—no one was getting squeezed.
Here’s the bull case.
KB Securities’ latest forecast, released today, puts fourth-quarter operating profit at 104 trillion won, up 441% year over year—the first time quarterly profit has topped 100 trillion won.
The third quarter had already set records, with revenue topping 100 trillion won for the first time. HBM4 mass production and shipments are underway, and the company has signed 14 long-term supply agreements. It’s said that capacity is sold out through 2029.
On top of that, the 2 trillion won buyback launched Thursday, and local investors bought a net 518 billion won of Korean stocks today. This V-shaped rebound was backed by real money.
And the bear case.
Put simply, local investors stepped in to support the market today, but foreign investors and retail traders are still selling. This isn’t over yet.
Friday’s shock hasn’t faded either: Intel fell 29%, while Amazon missed expectations on both revenue and EPS. We’ll have to wait until the fourth quarter to see whether higher memory prices translate into real profits.
KB’s 104 trillion won figure is only a forecast, and it’s below Citi’s estimate of 107 trillion won. If the company doesn’t deliver, it’s just a number on paper.
My take.
I’m siding with the bulls, but I’ll only give it half credit.
A V-shaped reversal backed by a buyback and strong local buying carries more weight than a purely sentiment-driven bounce. Ultimately, the HBM story depends on whether Nvidia’s AI computing orders can absorb the supply.
I don’t own this stock. I’ll give today’s V half credit for now, but I won’t touch it until it holds above 1115. If it breaks below 1020, I’ll treat today’s move as a one-day rally propped up by the buyback.
Will it hold above 1115 and confirm a real V-shaped reversal, or will a break below 1020 show that today was just a one-day rally propped up by market support? I’m betting on the former. What about you?
$SKHY $INTC $NVDA
#SK海力士 #Semiconductors
