Is Trump headed for defeat? The countdown to the midterms is on! With the odds hitting 70%, are Bitcoin and tech stocks due for a repricing?
The latest prediction market data has pushed the odds of Democrats sweeping Congress straight up to 70%, suggesting Trump’s Republicans are very likely to lose their grip on power.
That’s because midterm elections have always been a president’s “midterm exam.” Trump has been in office for nearly two years, and the economy, inflation, and policy controversies have all given Americans reasons to judge his record.
But honestly, the same thing happened in Trump’s previous two elections: he was behind in the polls, but when the actual results came in, he somehow turned things around. Can he pull off a miracle this time, too? At the moment, the odds look a little lower.
The market is already pricing in a Democratic sweep as the base case. For the market, Democrats taking both chambers would mean significantly stronger checks and balances. Trump would have less room to push through further tax cuts, deregulation, and higher tariffs, making it harder to implement his policies.
Actually, this isn’t all that surprising. As the chart shows, the Nasdaq hit its lows around the 2018 and 2022 midterms. It had already pulled back quite a bit then, and this time doesn’t look like an exception—it’s starting to pull back sharply.
Xiaoqin has talked about this in several episodes this year: it’s called the “midterm election curse.” Markets tend to pull back as the midterms approach. I’m sure that rings a bell for everyone. Did you manage to sell near the top?
And did you know? According to historical data, even though markets pull back around every midterm and take a big hit, those periods have actually been excellent opportunities to get back in. Prices then gradually start to rise—and Bitcoin is no exception. Be sure to seize the opportunity!
The latest prediction market data has pushed the odds of Democrats sweeping Congress straight up to 70%, suggesting Trump’s Republicans are very likely to lose their grip on power.
That’s because midterm elections have always been a president’s “midterm exam.” Trump has been in office for nearly two years, and the economy, inflation, and policy controversies have all given Americans reasons to judge his record.
But honestly, the same thing happened in Trump’s previous two elections: he was behind in the polls, but when the actual results came in, he somehow turned things around. Can he pull off a miracle this time, too? At the moment, the odds look a little lower.
The market is already pricing in a Democratic sweep as the base case. For the market, Democrats taking both chambers would mean significantly stronger checks and balances. Trump would have less room to push through further tax cuts, deregulation, and higher tariffs, making it harder to implement his policies.
Actually, this isn’t all that surprising. As the chart shows, the Nasdaq hit its lows around the 2018 and 2022 midterms. It had already pulled back quite a bit then, and this time doesn’t look like an exception—it’s starting to pull back sharply.
Xiaoqin has talked about this in several episodes this year: it’s called the “midterm election curse.” Markets tend to pull back as the midterms approach. I’m sure that rings a bell for everyone. Did you manage to sell near the top?
And did you know? According to historical data, even though markets pull back around every midterm and take a big hit, those periods have actually been excellent opportunities to get back in. Prices then gradually start to rise—and Bitcoin is no exception. Be sure to seize the opportunity!
