XRP fell 16% in October. History says there’s a 62.5% chance it’ll keep falling—but ETFs are quietly buying
XRP at $1.25, down 16% in October. It was the fourth-worst October on record. There’s a pretty eerie statistic: in years when XRP falls in October, there’s a 62.5% chance it keeps falling in November.
Worse, there’s a sword hanging over the market. Evernorth holds about 473 million XRP and recently disclosed $30 million in debt obligations. It may sell tokens to repay them. At current prices, 473 million XRP is worth about $590 million. It hasn’t said it plans to sell, but the market has already started pricing in the possibility.
On the other hand, spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows of $18.83 million in October, marking seven consecutive months of net inflows. The price is falling, but the products are buying.
That’s the clearest contradiction in the market right now: long-term money is positioning, while short-term money is running for the exits.
My view: bearish in the short term, but not pessimistic in the medium term.
In the short term, watch two levels: $1.20 is a psychological threshold, and $1.07 was the starting point 90 days ago. Falling back to that level would erase the entire rally. If Evernorth actually sells even once, sentiment could break first.
In the medium term, watch the ETFs. Seven consecutive months of net inflows isn’t something retail investors can pull off. This is infrastructure being built, not a bet on a one-week trend.
How to participate: don’t rush into a heavy position at $1.25. Wait for one of two confirmations: either a low-volume pullback into the $1.15–$1.20 range, or a clear increase in weekly ETF inflows. Consider taking a position if either one happens.
Historical odds are just odds. A 62.5% chance still means there’s a 37.5% chance you’ll be proven wrong. Trading isn’t about predicting—it’s about being able to get out when you’re wrong.
XRP at $1.25, down 16% in October. It was the fourth-worst October on record. There’s a pretty eerie statistic: in years when XRP falls in October, there’s a 62.5% chance it keeps falling in November.
Worse, there’s a sword hanging over the market. Evernorth holds about 473 million XRP and recently disclosed $30 million in debt obligations. It may sell tokens to repay them. At current prices, 473 million XRP is worth about $590 million. It hasn’t said it plans to sell, but the market has already started pricing in the possibility.
On the other hand, spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows of $18.83 million in October, marking seven consecutive months of net inflows. The price is falling, but the products are buying.
That’s the clearest contradiction in the market right now: long-term money is positioning, while short-term money is running for the exits.
My view: bearish in the short term, but not pessimistic in the medium term.
In the short term, watch two levels: $1.20 is a psychological threshold, and $1.07 was the starting point 90 days ago. Falling back to that level would erase the entire rally. If Evernorth actually sells even once, sentiment could break first.
In the medium term, watch the ETFs. Seven consecutive months of net inflows isn’t something retail investors can pull off. This is infrastructure being built, not a bet on a one-week trend.
How to participate: don’t rush into a heavy position at $1.25. Wait for one of two confirmations: either a low-volume pullback into the $1.15–$1.20 range, or a clear increase in weekly ETF inflows. Consider taking a position if either one happens.
Historical odds are just odds. A 62.5% chance still means there’s a 37.5% chance you’ll be proven wrong. Trading isn’t about predicting—it’s about being able to get out when you’re wrong.