$NEAR is down 6.35% to 4.088 and has updated its daily low to 4.077. The daily EMA(50) at 4.310 has been broken to the downside, with the psychological 4.00 level nearby.
Backdrop: ISM manufacturing data is due today; US midterm elections are on November 3. Binance is gradually resuming withdrawals from November 1 following the hack.
Spot: net outflow over 24 hours is -1.01M NEAR (about $4M), large holders -289.5K, mid-sized holders -729.6K. Over 5 days, still +2.99M.
Futures: open interest rose from $178.4M to $181.6M as the price fell. Retail long/short ratio by accounts is 1.48, and top traders' long/short ratio by positions is 2.20: both groups are skewed long. Funding +0.01%, basis rate.
1h: price below EMA(21) at 4.272 and EMA(50) at 4.325, with Supertrend at 4.297 acting as resistance, RSI(6) at 16.23.
4h: below EMA(21) at 4.344, EMA(50) at 4.462, EMA(200) at 4.558, and Supertrend at 4.572, RSI(6) at 18.81.
1d: below EMA(21) at 4.578 and EMA(50) at 4.310, above EMA(200) at 2.945, with Supertrend at 3.819 below the price, RSI(6) at 33.38.
Forecast:
🟢 If the 4.00–4.05 zone holds, a bounce to 4.20 and 4.27 is possible.
🔴 If 4.00 breaks, there is a risk of a move to 3.90, then 3.82.
My position: a short scenario is possible
NEAR: will we hold 4.00 or head to 3.80?
