I’ve gone over this week’s calendar to get a sense of what’s coming, so the data won’t catch me off guard.
Tomorrow, November 3, is when the main event kicks off: the U.S. midterm elections. All 435 House seats are up for election, along with roughly a third of the Senate seats. Results will come in throughout the night, and we probably won’t have a clear picture until the morning of the 4th, Beijing time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also announces its rate decision that day, along with the release of U.S. JOLTS job openings data for September. With the election and employment data landing on the same day, it’ll be hard for markets to stay calm.
On the 4th, we’ll get ADP private-sector employment and ISM services data; on the 5th, the Bank of England announces its rate decision.
The grand finale is October’s nonfarm payrolls report on the evening of the 6th. Last month, just 29,000 jobs were added and unemployment was 4.2%. Whether things pick up this time will directly influence the Fed’s thinking in December. At the end of October, it left rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4%, and its December 8–9 meeting will be the real test.
There’s also something to watch in crypto this week: the zero-knowledge proof mentioned in Binance’s October 31 update is expected around the 3rd, based on a 40–50-hour estimate. Whether it’s delivered on time is more worth watching than all the election chatter.
My approach this week boils down to one thing: no impulsive position increases before the data comes out, and definitely no betting on a direction during election night or nonfarm payrolls night.
I’d rather be a little late than get whipsawed when the data drops.
Which day are you most nervous about this week: election night or Friday’s nonfarm payrolls?
These are my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
#ThisWeekInMacro
Tomorrow, November 3, is when the main event kicks off: the U.S. midterm elections. All 435 House seats are up for election, along with roughly a third of the Senate seats. Results will come in throughout the night, and we probably won’t have a clear picture until the morning of the 4th, Beijing time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also announces its rate decision that day, along with the release of U.S. JOLTS job openings data for September. With the election and employment data landing on the same day, it’ll be hard for markets to stay calm.
On the 4th, we’ll get ADP private-sector employment and ISM services data; on the 5th, the Bank of England announces its rate decision.
The grand finale is October’s nonfarm payrolls report on the evening of the 6th. Last month, just 29,000 jobs were added and unemployment was 4.2%. Whether things pick up this time will directly influence the Fed’s thinking in December. At the end of October, it left rates unchanged at 3.75% to 4%, and its December 8–9 meeting will be the real test.
There’s also something to watch in crypto this week: the zero-knowledge proof mentioned in Binance’s October 31 update is expected around the 3rd, based on a 40–50-hour estimate. Whether it’s delivered on time is more worth watching than all the election chatter.
My approach this week boils down to one thing: no impulsive position increases before the data comes out, and definitely no betting on a direction during election night or nonfarm payrolls night.
I’d rather be a little late than get whipsawed when the data drops.
Which day are you most nervous about this week: election night or Friday’s nonfarm payrolls?
These are my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
#ThisWeekInMacro