Before Kalshi was valued at $40 billion, it was just another Series A deck that "didn't look like much"
Sequoia's Alfred Lin just made public the full deck Kalshi used to raise its Series A. For context: Kalshi just announced its Series G, raising $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, with Sequoia co-leading the round.
A few things worth noting:
1. Regulation first, from day one
Kalshi took a compliance-first approach from the start. Today, "trading on the outcomes of events" may seem obvious, but when the company was founded in 2018 and Sequoia invested in 2020, this was a new asset class that few understood.
2. The hockey-stick curve really did happen, but the journey was much bumpier than planned
Kalshi not only hit the growth projections in the deck, but surpassed them. But Tarek himself has said that for the first five years, it felt like nothing was working—until suddenly, everything clicked.
3. Raising money isn't about presentation
The founders' headshots in the deck were just ordinary photos of "finance interns." Alfred's point was: every extraordinary person was once ordinary.
4. Sequoia almost missed out
Because of a communication mishap, they nearly missed the investment altogether. Eight years later, Kalshi is still on Day 1.
My take:
After a year of working on Bagel, prediction markets, and AI trading, the point that resonates most with me is #2. From the outside, people see a curve; those on the inside lived through five years of "nothing working."
Prediction markets look like the next big thing today, but Kalshi got the hardest, slowest part—regulatory compliance—done first, back when nobody believed in it. The real moat is often the part that seemed most foolish at the time.
AI agents are at the same stage now: everyone's talking about the narrative, but few are willing to put in the work to build the foundations first. We're doing the same—building from within first, and letting the curve come in its own time.
To founders still in the "nothing is working" phase: Kalshi went through it too.
Original post: https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2116924431960535365
This content was compiled by me (possibly with AI assistance) and reflects my personal views only. It does not constitute investment advice.
#Kalshi #预测市场 #Entrepreneurship
Sequoia's Alfred Lin just made public the full deck Kalshi used to raise its Series A. For context: Kalshi just announced its Series G, raising $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, with Sequoia co-leading the round.
A few things worth noting:
1. Regulation first, from day one
Kalshi took a compliance-first approach from the start. Today, "trading on the outcomes of events" may seem obvious, but when the company was founded in 2018 and Sequoia invested in 2020, this was a new asset class that few understood.
2. The hockey-stick curve really did happen, but the journey was much bumpier than planned
Kalshi not only hit the growth projections in the deck, but surpassed them. But Tarek himself has said that for the first five years, it felt like nothing was working—until suddenly, everything clicked.
3. Raising money isn't about presentation
The founders' headshots in the deck were just ordinary photos of "finance interns." Alfred's point was: every extraordinary person was once ordinary.
4. Sequoia almost missed out
Because of a communication mishap, they nearly missed the investment altogether. Eight years later, Kalshi is still on Day 1.
My take:
After a year of working on Bagel, prediction markets, and AI trading, the point that resonates most with me is #2. From the outside, people see a curve; those on the inside lived through five years of "nothing working."
Prediction markets look like the next big thing today, but Kalshi got the hardest, slowest part—regulatory compliance—done first, back when nobody believed in it. The real moat is often the part that seemed most foolish at the time.
AI agents are at the same stage now: everyone's talking about the narrative, but few are willing to put in the work to build the foundations first. We're doing the same—building from within first, and letting the curve come in its own time.
To founders still in the "nothing is working" phase: Kalshi went through it too.
Original post: https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2116924431960535365
This content was compiled by me (possibly with AI assistance) and reflects my personal views only. It does not constitute investment advice.
#Kalshi #预测市场 #Entrepreneurship
