Markets reopened Monday, and the whole world was watching the Strait of Hormuz—but two things were hidden by the tankers’ black smoke.

First, Russia and Ukraine quietly escalated while the world watched the Middle East: Russian forces launched overnight airstrikes on energy facilities in four Ukrainian regions, and Zelenskyy said hundreds of thousands of people had lost power. When the war reaches the power grid, it hits people’s livelihoods. Energy bills will only get uglier this winter.

Second, after speaking with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, Trump declared: You build the Keystone pipeline, and you pay for it. Interesting: the Middle East is blowing up production capacity while North America is laying pipelines. One side is tearing things down, the other is building them back up—and the bull and bear cases for oil are both on the table.

U.S. stock futures edged higher when trading resumed, catching their breath after Friday’s tech selloff. But even Wall Street says volatility is high during midterm election week. This isn’t a reversal—it’s a breather.

Axios reports that Trump and Netanyahu have settled on next steps in a phone call. Diplomacy has another two days to play out; Tuesday’s midterms are the real turning point.

My view: Don’t guess who wins at the negotiating table. Watch production capacity, pipelines, and power grids. The numbers matter more than tough talk, and $BTC $ETH is no exception.

NFA DYOR

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