Honestly, watching BTC climb back from $77,000 to $78,000 over the past two days feels pretty good, but after looking through the fund flows, I’m feeling a bit uneasy 🤔
One number really stands out: the total market cap of stablecoins has been falling for five days straight. According to DefiLlama, it was still $302.6 billion last Sunday; today it’s around $297.7 billion—down nearly $5 billion in a week. USDT alone is down about $3 billion.
Stablecoins are off-exchange firepower. That firepower is dwindling, while prices are still rising, which suggests this rebound is driven more by money already in the market shifting around and shorts closing out—not by new money coming in.
The second thing I want to figure out: after Binance withdrawals resumed, where did the withdrawn funds go?
I checked third-party stats: from yesterday to today, the combined assets of OKX, Bybit, and Bitget increased by less than $1 billion. Total DeFi TVL went from $84.9 billion to $85.6 billion, up only about $700 million—and rising token prices contributed to that, too.
So my understanding is that most people just moved their coins back to their own wallets instead of taking them somewhere else to keep trading. That’s not really a bad thing—the money hasn’t left the market, it’s just sitting on the sidelines for now 😅
What does this mean for the market? My take: without fresh money coming in, the $79,000 level will be tough to break through. There’s just one thing I’ll be watching next: whether the total stablecoin supply can get back above $300 billion. Once it does, I’ll be more confident that the rebound has legs.
ISM is also due out tonight at 23:00, and volatility could pick up after the release. Don’t go too heavy on your positions.
Are you planning to keep the coins you withdrew in your own wallets, or deposit them back in a few days?
This is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Markets are risky, so manage your positions carefully.