Honestly, what’s caught my attention most about BTC over the past couple of days isn’t whether it’s going up or down—it’s how increasingly “lazy” it’s become 😴
I ran the numbers on CoinGecko’s daily data: BTC’s daily percentage-change standard deviation is about 1.47% over the past 30 days, versus 2.03% over the past 90 days. In plain English, its daily swings over the past month have been nearly 30% smaller than over the past three months.
The current level of 78,400 is interesting too—it’s right between two lines: the 7-day moving average at around 78,800 above, and the 90-day moving average at around 78,000 below. That’s only about $800 apart.
My feeling is that the longer volatility stays compressed, the more forceful the eventual move tends to be. If it can hold above 78,800, the next level to watch is the 30-day moving average around 81,600; if it falls back below 78,000, the October 31 closing low of 77,200 is the first line of defense.
ETH has already made a move: at 2,294, it’s just climbed back above the 7-day moving average at 2,288, with the 120-day moving average at 2,265 also underneath it. But it’s still nearly 3% below the 20-day moving average at 2,360, so I’m not rushing to draw any conclusions.
ISM is out tonight at 23:00. With volatility this compressed, a single data point could break the range 📊
What do you think—after all this buildup, does it move up first or down first?
$BTC $ETH
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk.
#BTC #ETH #技术分析 #Volatility
I ran the numbers on CoinGecko’s daily data: BTC’s daily percentage-change standard deviation is about 1.47% over the past 30 days, versus 2.03% over the past 90 days. In plain English, its daily swings over the past month have been nearly 30% smaller than over the past three months.
The current level of 78,400 is interesting too—it’s right between two lines: the 7-day moving average at around 78,800 above, and the 90-day moving average at around 78,000 below. That’s only about $800 apart.
My feeling is that the longer volatility stays compressed, the more forceful the eventual move tends to be. If it can hold above 78,800, the next level to watch is the 30-day moving average around 81,600; if it falls back below 78,000, the October 31 closing low of 77,200 is the first line of defense.
ETH has already made a move: at 2,294, it’s just climbed back above the 7-day moving average at 2,288, with the 120-day moving average at 2,265 also underneath it. But it’s still nearly 3% below the 20-day moving average at 2,360, so I’m not rushing to draw any conclusions.
ISM is out tonight at 23:00. With volatility this compressed, a single data point could break the range 📊
What do you think—after all this buildup, does it move up first or down first?
$BTC $ETH
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risk.
#BTC #ETH #技术分析 #Volatility