Someone told me my liquidation price of 310 was too close—I’d be wiped out after a 57% drop.
I argued back: BNB has already fallen 50% from its high this cycle, so the odds of another 50% drop are very low. And even a black swan like the Binance hack a few days ago only knocked it down 10 points.
He conceded that I was half right.
Let’s start with the half he got right. Coin-margined longs have this feature: when the price rises, you earn coins, and the coins themselves appreciate too, so your liquidation price keeps moving down on its own.
I’m at 711 now, with a liquidation price of 310.
At 900, my liquidation price would be 288.
At 1,200, it would be 267.
At 1,500, it would be 256.
So as long as the bull market comes first, 310 won’t be hit. He agrees with me on that.
But he said my two arguments don’t hold up.
The first: “It’s already fallen 50%, so it won’t fall another 50%.” In May 2021, BNB was at 690. By July, it was down to 230—a 67% drop. Then it climbed back to 670 in November, a 191% gain. In June 2022, it fell again, to 183—a 73% drop.
Two steep drops in a row, with a doubling in between. Price has no idea where you came from.
The second: “A black swan only knocks it down 10 points.” This time, funds were stolen but could be reimbursed, so the market reaction was mild. But during another exchange crisis, BNB fell from 300 to 183 during the FTX collapse—a 39% drop—and it bled lower for a month. It wasn’t a single sharp plunge.
Financial losses can be reimbursed. A collapse in trust can’t.
So he reframed the question I’d asked.
It’s not “Will it fall 57%?” It’s “Could it fall 57% before it reaches 900?”
What I’m really betting on isn’t that BNB will reach 1,500. It’s that BNB will reach 1,500 before it falls to 310.
The first is a view on direction; the second is about timing. And timing is the one thing I can’t predict.
So I’ve decided to change one rule: no price-based stop-loss—use a time-based stop-loss instead.
If it gets above 900 before February 2027, I’ll keep holding. If it doesn’t, I’ll cut my position in half.
If it falls below 500 at any point, I’ll cut my position in half—without waiting for 310.
A price-based stop-loss would shake me out. A time-based one won’t. It doesn’t change my conviction; it just ensures that if I’m wrong, I’ll still get another chance.
I argued back: BNB has already fallen 50% from its high this cycle, so the odds of another 50% drop are very low. And even a black swan like the Binance hack a few days ago only knocked it down 10 points.
He conceded that I was half right.
Let’s start with the half he got right. Coin-margined longs have this feature: when the price rises, you earn coins, and the coins themselves appreciate too, so your liquidation price keeps moving down on its own.
I’m at 711 now, with a liquidation price of 310.
At 900, my liquidation price would be 288.
At 1,200, it would be 267.
At 1,500, it would be 256.
So as long as the bull market comes first, 310 won’t be hit. He agrees with me on that.
But he said my two arguments don’t hold up.
The first: “It’s already fallen 50%, so it won’t fall another 50%.” In May 2021, BNB was at 690. By July, it was down to 230—a 67% drop. Then it climbed back to 670 in November, a 191% gain. In June 2022, it fell again, to 183—a 73% drop.
Two steep drops in a row, with a doubling in between. Price has no idea where you came from.
The second: “A black swan only knocks it down 10 points.” This time, funds were stolen but could be reimbursed, so the market reaction was mild. But during another exchange crisis, BNB fell from 300 to 183 during the FTX collapse—a 39% drop—and it bled lower for a month. It wasn’t a single sharp plunge.
Financial losses can be reimbursed. A collapse in trust can’t.
So he reframed the question I’d asked.
It’s not “Will it fall 57%?” It’s “Could it fall 57% before it reaches 900?”
What I’m really betting on isn’t that BNB will reach 1,500. It’s that BNB will reach 1,500 before it falls to 310.
The first is a view on direction; the second is about timing. And timing is the one thing I can’t predict.
So I’ve decided to change one rule: no price-based stop-loss—use a time-based stop-loss instead.
If it gets above 900 before February 2027, I’ll keep holding. If it doesn’t, I’ll cut my position in half.
If it falls below 500 at any point, I’ll cut my position in half—without waiting for 310.
A price-based stop-loss would shake me out. A time-based one won’t. It doesn’t change my conviction; it just ensures that if I’m wrong, I’ll still get another chance.