Voting is tomorrow, and TRUMP coin is already up 8.7%—still 98% below its high
I'm on the short-term bulls' side, but I won't chase at this level. I need to see it hold above 1.777.
Voting in the U.S. midterm elections is tomorrow, with results coming in from the morning through midday Beijing time on November 4. TRUMP coin has already made a move today.
It's currently at 1.718, up 8.7% in 24 hours, after touching a high of 1.777. Futures trading volume hit $199 million, making it the biggest gainer among today's top 100 coins.
BTC is up only around 0.9% over the same period—this one is flying solo.
The candle that kicked off the rally was interesting.
The 4-hour candle at 8 p.m. Beijing time last night saw volume hit 50 million coins, with the price jumping from 1.597 to 1.714.
Since then, it's been consolidating between 1.65 and 1.77 without pushing higher.
Put simply, this move is a bet on headlines, not fundamentals.
Prediction posts are split: some are calling for a post-election surge to $3, while others expect a sell-off to 1.3 once the news breaks. The potential price swings are more than 2x.
The bulls do have a few cards to play.
When a headline hits, volume comes first. Yesterday's 50-million-coin volume was the footprint of early money moving in.
And funding is only 0.005% every 8 hours, so nobody's getting squeezed and positioning isn't overheated.
The bears have more concrete arguments.
This coin has fallen from its January 2025 high of $75 to where it is now, down about 98%. It has fallen in 9 of the past 10 months this year.
It also set a new low of 1.37 in August, around 900,000 coins are still being unlocked every day, and 23% of the supply remains locked.
Any move higher will first have to absorb that selling pressure.
My view is simple.
This is an election thermometer, not a discovery of value. An 8.7% rise on the thermometer means someone is placing bets early.
But a thermometer can't tell you the election results.
I'm staying out until the votes are counted. If it rises, someone else can have the gains; if it crashes, I won't lose sleep over it.
If it holds above 1.777, I'll buy the idea that this election trade isn't over and look toward 2.04.
If it falls below 1.579, it means the early bettors have run for the exits. I'd look to 1.37, and if that breaks, then to the rumored target of 1.30.
Will it hold above 1.777 and keep betting on the headlines to push it to 2.04, or will it fall below 1.579 as the early bettors run for the exits toward 1.37?
I'm betting on the former—the election-night headline premium hasn't fully played out yet. What about you?
$TRUMP $BTC
#中期选举 #Meme coin
I'm on the short-term bulls' side, but I won't chase at this level. I need to see it hold above 1.777.
Voting in the U.S. midterm elections is tomorrow, with results coming in from the morning through midday Beijing time on November 4. TRUMP coin has already made a move today.
It's currently at 1.718, up 8.7% in 24 hours, after touching a high of 1.777. Futures trading volume hit $199 million, making it the biggest gainer among today's top 100 coins.
BTC is up only around 0.9% over the same period—this one is flying solo.
The candle that kicked off the rally was interesting.
The 4-hour candle at 8 p.m. Beijing time last night saw volume hit 50 million coins, with the price jumping from 1.597 to 1.714.
Since then, it's been consolidating between 1.65 and 1.77 without pushing higher.
Put simply, this move is a bet on headlines, not fundamentals.
Prediction posts are split: some are calling for a post-election surge to $3, while others expect a sell-off to 1.3 once the news breaks. The potential price swings are more than 2x.
The bulls do have a few cards to play.
When a headline hits, volume comes first. Yesterday's 50-million-coin volume was the footprint of early money moving in.
And funding is only 0.005% every 8 hours, so nobody's getting squeezed and positioning isn't overheated.
The bears have more concrete arguments.
This coin has fallen from its January 2025 high of $75 to where it is now, down about 98%. It has fallen in 9 of the past 10 months this year.
It also set a new low of 1.37 in August, around 900,000 coins are still being unlocked every day, and 23% of the supply remains locked.
Any move higher will first have to absorb that selling pressure.
My view is simple.
This is an election thermometer, not a discovery of value. An 8.7% rise on the thermometer means someone is placing bets early.
But a thermometer can't tell you the election results.
I'm staying out until the votes are counted. If it rises, someone else can have the gains; if it crashes, I won't lose sleep over it.
If it holds above 1.777, I'll buy the idea that this election trade isn't over and look toward 2.04.
If it falls below 1.579, it means the early bettors have run for the exits. I'd look to 1.37, and if that breaks, then to the rumored target of 1.30.
Will it hold above 1.777 and keep betting on the headlines to push it to 2.04, or will it fall below 1.579 as the early bettors run for the exits toward 1.37?
I'm betting on the former—the election-night headline premium hasn't fully played out yet. What about you?
$TRUMP $BTC
#中期选举 #Meme coin
