$KORU Morning meeting notes: Prices were pushed up during the first three hours of the session, but the number of open contracts fell. That’s more worth noting than the rise itself.
First, Gate perpetuals. Currently around 11.54, up about 9.5% over 24h, with a daily high of 11.745 and low of 10.53; trading volume is about 5.51 million U. Bitcoin is around 78,400, up about 1% over 24h, so it barely helped. This move was its own doing. I couldn’t find any news that explains it, so I’ll just talk about the chart.
From overnight through 6 a.m., hourly volume was mostly just 20,000 to 100,000 U, with price stuck between 10.65 and 10.76. Things really started moving at 7 a.m. That hour saw about 750,000 U in volume: price first dipped to the daily low of 10.53, then recovered to close at 10.87. At 8 a.m., volume was about 1.21 million U, pushing price from 10.88 up to around 11.24. Nine o’clock was the main impulse: the full hour saw about 2.01 million U in volume. The five-minute candle at 9:00, with about 260,000 U in volume, drove price from 11.15 to 11.47; at 9:05, about 360,000 U in volume brought it close to 11.65; and at 9:15 it touched the daily high of 11.745. Volume then suddenly contracted to about 340,000 U at 10 a.m., and price hovered around 11.5.
The volume was real, but open interest didn’t rise along with it. At 6 a.m., open interest was about 11.04 million contracts, with a notional value of about 11.83 million U, and the account long/short ratio was around 3.50—already heavily skewed long. After the 7 a.m. rise, the contract count was still around 11.05 million. During the 8 a.m. price rise, the number of contracts actually fell to about 10.87 million. After the main 9 a.m. impulse, it dropped to about 9.94 million contracts, with a notional value of about 11.35 million U, and the account long/short ratio returned to around 2.87. Put simply, the price rose nearly 10%, while the number of contracts fell by about 10%. This wasn’t new money piling in with leverage; it looks more like position turnover in a thin market and existing positions changing hands. Funding was only slightly positive, close to zero, and there were no notable short-liquidation figures to point to.
So, what do I think? I wouldn’t treat price hovering near the daily high of 11.745 as confirmation of a trend. The morning volume has already stirred up sentiment, and the contraction in volume at 10 a.m. shows that follow-through is weakening. More importantly, open interest fell as price rose. This kind of structure usually doesn’t last, and at the very least, it’s not something to chase as a breakout. If price pulls back and wobbles around 11.3 to 11.4, near the levels before 10 a.m., and both volume continues to contract and the contract count stops falling, that’s just consolidation after the morning impulse—not the start of a new leg.
What would prove me wrong: if an hourly candle closes firmly above the daily high of 11.745, while the contract count climbs back above 11 million and notional value returns to around 12 million U, that would show genuine new positions accepting this price, invalidating my view that “an impulse doesn’t equal a trend.”
Looking back at yesterday’s $AKE : I said I wouldn’t call it a bottom after three rounds of aggressive selling, and that I’d be wrong only if price recovered to 0.0115 on rising volume, with open interest falling and funding returning to zero. It’s now around 0.00876, and the high hasn’t even reached 0.0115. Funding is still around -0.23%, so that view remains valid for now.
This is only an observation of market conditions, not a recommendation.
First, Gate perpetuals. Currently around 11.54, up about 9.5% over 24h, with a daily high of 11.745 and low of 10.53; trading volume is about 5.51 million U. Bitcoin is around 78,400, up about 1% over 24h, so it barely helped. This move was its own doing. I couldn’t find any news that explains it, so I’ll just talk about the chart.
From overnight through 6 a.m., hourly volume was mostly just 20,000 to 100,000 U, with price stuck between 10.65 and 10.76. Things really started moving at 7 a.m. That hour saw about 750,000 U in volume: price first dipped to the daily low of 10.53, then recovered to close at 10.87. At 8 a.m., volume was about 1.21 million U, pushing price from 10.88 up to around 11.24. Nine o’clock was the main impulse: the full hour saw about 2.01 million U in volume. The five-minute candle at 9:00, with about 260,000 U in volume, drove price from 11.15 to 11.47; at 9:05, about 360,000 U in volume brought it close to 11.65; and at 9:15 it touched the daily high of 11.745. Volume then suddenly contracted to about 340,000 U at 10 a.m., and price hovered around 11.5.
The volume was real, but open interest didn’t rise along with it. At 6 a.m., open interest was about 11.04 million contracts, with a notional value of about 11.83 million U, and the account long/short ratio was around 3.50—already heavily skewed long. After the 7 a.m. rise, the contract count was still around 11.05 million. During the 8 a.m. price rise, the number of contracts actually fell to about 10.87 million. After the main 9 a.m. impulse, it dropped to about 9.94 million contracts, with a notional value of about 11.35 million U, and the account long/short ratio returned to around 2.87. Put simply, the price rose nearly 10%, while the number of contracts fell by about 10%. This wasn’t new money piling in with leverage; it looks more like position turnover in a thin market and existing positions changing hands. Funding was only slightly positive, close to zero, and there were no notable short-liquidation figures to point to.
So, what do I think? I wouldn’t treat price hovering near the daily high of 11.745 as confirmation of a trend. The morning volume has already stirred up sentiment, and the contraction in volume at 10 a.m. shows that follow-through is weakening. More importantly, open interest fell as price rose. This kind of structure usually doesn’t last, and at the very least, it’s not something to chase as a breakout. If price pulls back and wobbles around 11.3 to 11.4, near the levels before 10 a.m., and both volume continues to contract and the contract count stops falling, that’s just consolidation after the morning impulse—not the start of a new leg.
What would prove me wrong: if an hourly candle closes firmly above the daily high of 11.745, while the contract count climbs back above 11 million and notional value returns to around 12 million U, that would show genuine new positions accepting this price, invalidating my view that “an impulse doesn’t equal a trend.”
Looking back at yesterday’s $AKE : I said I wouldn’t call it a bottom after three rounds of aggressive selling, and that I’d be wrong only if price recovered to 0.0115 on rising volume, with open interest falling and funding returning to zero. It’s now around 0.00876, and the high hasn’t even reached 0.0115. Funding is still around -0.23%, so that view remains valid for now.
This is only an observation of market conditions, not a recommendation.