The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report is undoubtedly the main event in financial markets right now. The general market expectation is that around 60,000 jobs were added in October, a marked rebound from the previous figure of 29,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.2%. But this report does more than reflect the health of the labor market—it will directly determine the direction of the Fed’s rate-hike path in December.
The current macroeconomic backdrop is fairly complex. The Fed previously kept interest rates in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, but core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% year over year in September, indicating that inflationary pressures have not fully dissipated. As a result, the market is currently pricing in a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. The key question now is whether this nonfarm payrolls report will push rate-hike expectations higher or cool them down. Any shift in expectations could trigger sharp swings in Treasury yields, the dollar index, and risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Based on discussions in the community, people are taking a very pragmatic view of the Fed’s macro outlook. Hawkish comments from officials alone are no longer enough to significantly raise rate-hike expectations; the market wants to see hard data before committing to a direction. Based on current market action, BTC is up slightly by 0.64%, with the market largely holding its breath. The period just before and after the data is often when the bulls and bears clash most fiercely, so watch out for sudden wicks and sharp volatility. $BTC
#非农就业数据
The current macroeconomic backdrop is fairly complex. The Fed previously kept interest rates in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, but core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% year over year in September, indicating that inflationary pressures have not fully dissipated. As a result, the market is currently pricing in a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. The key question now is whether this nonfarm payrolls report will push rate-hike expectations higher or cool them down. Any shift in expectations could trigger sharp swings in Treasury yields, the dollar index, and risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Based on discussions in the community, people are taking a very pragmatic view of the Fed’s macro outlook. Hawkish comments from officials alone are no longer enough to significantly raise rate-hike expectations; the market wants to see hard data before committing to a direction. Based on current market action, BTC is up slightly by 0.64%, with the market largely holding its breath. The period just before and after the data is often when the bulls and bears clash most fiercely, so watch out for sudden wicks and sharp volatility. $BTC
#非农就业数据