A blogger used AI to crunch the numbers: how long would it take Binance to earn $4 billion?
The benchmark is a U.S.-listed exchange, with average annual net profit of about $1.9 billion from 2024 to 2025 and a 10.7% share of global trading volume;
Binance’s share of the industry is about 33% to 35%, with a trading volume a little over three times as large.
Extrapolating at the same profit margin, Binance would make around $6 billion a year, reaching $4 billion in roughly six months to a year;
If fees are cut in half and the effective profit margin is also halved, it would make around $3 billion a year, taking about a year and a half to reach $4 billion.
My take: extrapolation is an estimate, not a financial report. The figures are only credible if the assumptions behind each step are clearly stated;
Of the two scenarios, I’d put more stock in the one with fees cut in half. The optimistic extrapolation is the most likely to go wrong.
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The benchmark is a U.S.-listed exchange, with average annual net profit of about $1.9 billion from 2024 to 2025 and a 10.7% share of global trading volume;
Binance’s share of the industry is about 33% to 35%, with a trading volume a little over three times as large.
Extrapolating at the same profit margin, Binance would make around $6 billion a year, reaching $4 billion in roughly six months to a year;
If fees are cut in half and the effective profit margin is also halved, it would make around $3 billion a year, taking about a year and a half to reach $4 billion.
My take: extrapolation is an estimate, not a financial report. The figures are only credible if the assumptions behind each step are clearly stated;
Of the two scenarios, I’d put more stock in the one with fees cut in half. The optimistic extrapolation is the most likely to go wrong.
$BTC
#热点 $HK