Trump again says Iran war will “end soon”: deal or renewed fighting—the window for choosing between the two is narrowing
- According to a Beijing Time report by Huanqiu.com at 08:36 on November 2 (citing a November 1 report by The Times of Israel), Trump again said the war with Iran would end soon, saying it would end “either with them making a deal, or with us just ending it,” and adding that the latter “may be the easier way.”
- Talks are still progressing, but differences remain: According to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi disclosed on November 1 that Iran had agreed to a “two-day plan”—on the first day, the U.S. would take a series of steps to fulfill its commitments; on the second day, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and traffic resume. Iran’s proposed conditions for compliance include establishing new shipping routes through the strait, unfreezing funds, and lifting the naval blockade. Araghchi also said Iran was prepared both defensively and diplomatically, and that which path it chooses depends on whether the U.S. acts rationally.
- The U.S. and Israel are not fully aligned: According to CCTV News, sources in Israel and the U.S. said Trump and Netanyahu had a “direct and sharp” phone call on October 31. Netanyahu urged Trump to “immediately resume the war against Iran” after the November 3 midterm elections. Trump currently wants to “give negotiations a full chance” and does not want Israel to disrupt the process, but his position could “change significantly” if talks fail. The White House and the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office both declined to comment. The call details are based on accounts from sources and have not been officially confirmed.
- The strait and oil prices remain part of the chain of transmission: According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy said on November 1 that two “violating” oil tankers struck mines and exploded while sailing along unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz; one was a supertanker. After international crude trading opened on November 2, New York crude futures and Brent crude futures opened down about 1.67% and 1.5%, respectively. BTC is around $78,000.
- Potential impact: The either-or narrative of negotiations versus renewed fighting could amplify short-term risk-aversion volatility, while oil prices and geopolitical headlines remain amplifiers of sentiment in the crypto market. However, ahead of the midterm elections, the U.S. has repeatedly said it will not strike first, so the real turning point is more likely to come after the vote.
My view: The short-term outlook for $BTC is neutral, since the window for negotiations remains open and oil prices actually fell at the open, suggesting the market has not yet priced in “immediate war.” But the either-or message of “a deal or renewed fighting” means that if negotiations collapse, the risk-off shock could come quickly.
$BTC $ETH
#美伊局势 #特朗普 #GeopoliticalRisk
Source: Huanqiu.com report at 08:36 on November 2 (citing The Times of Israel); CCTV News and Xinhua News Agency (compiled and cited by Futures Daily at 07:43 on November 2); call details are based on accounts from sources and have not been officially confirmed.
Tap the tag to view real-time market data: Do you think this round will end with a deal first, or fighting first? For reference only; this is not investment advice.
- According to a Beijing Time report by Huanqiu.com at 08:36 on November 2 (citing a November 1 report by The Times of Israel), Trump again said the war with Iran would end soon, saying it would end “either with them making a deal, or with us just ending it,” and adding that the latter “may be the easier way.”
- Talks are still progressing, but differences remain: According to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi disclosed on November 1 that Iran had agreed to a “two-day plan”—on the first day, the U.S. would take a series of steps to fulfill its commitments; on the second day, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and traffic resume. Iran’s proposed conditions for compliance include establishing new shipping routes through the strait, unfreezing funds, and lifting the naval blockade. Araghchi also said Iran was prepared both defensively and diplomatically, and that which path it chooses depends on whether the U.S. acts rationally.
- The U.S. and Israel are not fully aligned: According to CCTV News, sources in Israel and the U.S. said Trump and Netanyahu had a “direct and sharp” phone call on October 31. Netanyahu urged Trump to “immediately resume the war against Iran” after the November 3 midterm elections. Trump currently wants to “give negotiations a full chance” and does not want Israel to disrupt the process, but his position could “change significantly” if talks fail. The White House and the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office both declined to comment. The call details are based on accounts from sources and have not been officially confirmed.
- The strait and oil prices remain part of the chain of transmission: According to Xinhua News Agency, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy said on November 1 that two “violating” oil tankers struck mines and exploded while sailing along unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz; one was a supertanker. After international crude trading opened on November 2, New York crude futures and Brent crude futures opened down about 1.67% and 1.5%, respectively. BTC is around $78,000.
- Potential impact: The either-or narrative of negotiations versus renewed fighting could amplify short-term risk-aversion volatility, while oil prices and geopolitical headlines remain amplifiers of sentiment in the crypto market. However, ahead of the midterm elections, the U.S. has repeatedly said it will not strike first, so the real turning point is more likely to come after the vote.
My view: The short-term outlook for $BTC is neutral, since the window for negotiations remains open and oil prices actually fell at the open, suggesting the market has not yet priced in “immediate war.” But the either-or message of “a deal or renewed fighting” means that if negotiations collapse, the risk-off shock could come quickly.
$BTC $ETH
#美伊局势 #特朗普 #GeopoliticalRisk
Source: Huanqiu.com report at 08:36 on November 2 (citing The Times of Israel); CCTV News and Xinhua News Agency (compiled and cited by Futures Daily at 07:43 on November 2); call details are based on accounts from sources and have not been officially confirmed.
Tap the tag to view real-time market data: Do you think this round will end with a deal first, or fighting first? For reference only; this is not investment advice.
