The U.S. midterm elections are tomorrow.
Prediction markets have put the odds of Democrats taking the House at around 94%, and the Senate at over 70%. Betting on a “dramatic reversal rally” now means buying into expectations that are already priced in.
Some people point to history and say Bitcoin gains an average of about 54% in the year after midterms. But that’s based on just three elections—it looks more like a halving-cycle rally than a gift from politicians.
There’ll be volatility over the next few days as votes are counted. The real drivers are still interest rates, ETFs, and risk appetite. The regulatory landscape is a matter for next year’s Congress, not tonight’s candlestick chart.
#BTC $BTC
Prediction markets have put the odds of Democrats taking the House at around 94%, and the Senate at over 70%. Betting on a “dramatic reversal rally” now means buying into expectations that are already priced in.
Some people point to history and say Bitcoin gains an average of about 54% in the year after midterms. But that’s based on just three elections—it looks more like a halving-cycle rally than a gift from politicians.
There’ll be volatility over the next few days as votes are counted. The real drivers are still interest rates, ETFs, and risk appetite. The regulatory landscape is a matter for next year’s Congress, not tonight’s candlestick chart.
#BTC $BTC
