Market snapshot: Current price 78310, up slightly by 0.98% over 24 hours. High: 78523; low: 77517. Volume was just 6591 BTC, showing a clear drop.
Technical analysis: The 1-hour chart shows a bullish alignment and a MACD golden cross, so the short-term momentum is indeed strong. But the 4-hour RSI has surged to 78.89, deep into overbought territory—the rebound has risen too quickly, making it a poor risk-reward trade to chase. The daily chart is even less encouraging: RSI is only 35, MACD shows a death cross, and the moving averages are bearishly aligned, with the MA20 overhead at 80693. The broader trend is still a bounce within a downtrend. The upper Bollinger Band at 78325 is right overhead, resistance at 84898 is far away, and support at 76325 is the real line in the sand. In short: short-term bullish, medium-term bearish—don't mistake a rebound for a reversal.
资金面：大户账户多空比2.40、散户2.30，多头高度拥挤——这种一致性往往是插针的前兆，别在高位接刀。资金费率0.01%偏中性，主动买量3050对卖1892，买盘占优但需警惕诱多。
今日关注：恐慌贪婪指数37，仍处恐惧区，情绪没修复。操作倾向：偏空/观望，反弹到78300-78500一带可轻仓试空，不追多。