📈 TradFi Daily | 11.2
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🇺🇸 U.S. Stocks
▪️ CME FedWatch shows the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has risen to 72%. If expectations continue to climb, elevated Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could constrain valuations of risk assets, putting pressure on both growth stocks and crypto assets.
▪️ Wall Street is preparing the largest overhaul of Treasury issuance guidance in years. Combined with the risks of midterm elections and Fed policy, markets should watch how changes to issuance plans affect long-term yields and overall funding costs.
🥇 Gold & Commodities
▪️ Gold posted its worst October performance since 2008, and traders are continuing this week to assess the risk of further declines. With rate-hike expectations rising, traditional safe-haven dynamics are under pressure; real interest rates and the dollar's direction remain key variables.
▪️ Australia's final S&P Global manufacturing PMI for October came in at 49.6, slightly below the previous reading of 49.7, and remained in contractionary territory. The Reserve Bank of Australia may hike rates for the fifth time this year, as weak global growth coincides with tight monetary policy.
🛢️ Crude Oil
▪️ With North America switching to standard time, the opening time for commodities such as crude oil and gold has shifted to 07:00 (UTC+8). This batch of news does not provide data on oil price movements; for now, greater attention should be paid to how inflation expectations and interest-rate changes affect energy demand and valuations.
🔗 Impact on BTC
For $BTC , the 72% probability of a rate hike and potential changes to Treasury issuance suggest that liquidity conditions remain tight. In the near term, BTC is more sensitive to Treasury yields, the dollar, and risk appetite. Weakness in gold also suggests that investors have yet to converge on a consistent safe-haven buying trend. After Binance resumed withdrawals, it processed $4.65 billion in withdrawals, with net outflows of $3.64 billion, equivalent to 2.1% of its $171 billion in assets. CZ said these were concentrated in the initial period after withdrawals reopened. Meanwhile, Strategy signaled that it may continue accumulating BTC, but roughly $234 million in on-chain transfers and the BTCPay hot wallet attack highlight the need to distinguish between fund inflows, address rebalancing, and security risks. This batch of news does not provide net flows for U.S. spot BTC ETFs, so it is not yet possible to confirm whether institutional inflows are accelerating. For now, exchange net outflows, ETF subscriptions and redemptions, and security incidents warrant continued monitoring.
Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🇺🇸 U.S. Stocks
▪️ CME FedWatch shows the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has risen to 72%. If expectations continue to climb, elevated Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could constrain valuations of risk assets, putting pressure on both growth stocks and crypto assets.
▪️ Wall Street is preparing the largest overhaul of Treasury issuance guidance in years. Combined with the risks of midterm elections and Fed policy, markets should watch how changes to issuance plans affect long-term yields and overall funding costs.
🥇 Gold & Commodities
▪️ Gold posted its worst October performance since 2008, and traders are continuing this week to assess the risk of further declines. With rate-hike expectations rising, traditional safe-haven dynamics are under pressure; real interest rates and the dollar's direction remain key variables.
▪️ Australia's final S&P Global manufacturing PMI for October came in at 49.6, slightly below the previous reading of 49.7, and remained in contractionary territory. The Reserve Bank of Australia may hike rates for the fifth time this year, as weak global growth coincides with tight monetary policy.
🛢️ Crude Oil
▪️ With North America switching to standard time, the opening time for commodities such as crude oil and gold has shifted to 07:00 (UTC+8). This batch of news does not provide data on oil price movements; for now, greater attention should be paid to how inflation expectations and interest-rate changes affect energy demand and valuations.
🔗 Impact on BTC
For $BTC , the 72% probability of a rate hike and potential changes to Treasury issuance suggest that liquidity conditions remain tight. In the near term, BTC is more sensitive to Treasury yields, the dollar, and risk appetite. Weakness in gold also suggests that investors have yet to converge on a consistent safe-haven buying trend. After Binance resumed withdrawals, it processed $4.65 billion in withdrawals, with net outflows of $3.64 billion, equivalent to 2.1% of its $171 billion in assets. CZ said these were concentrated in the initial period after withdrawals reopened. Meanwhile, Strategy signaled that it may continue accumulating BTC, but roughly $234 million in on-chain transfers and the BTCPay hot wallet attack highlight the need to distinguish between fund inflows, address rebalancing, and security risks. This batch of news does not provide net flows for U.S. spot BTC ETFs, so it is not yet possible to confirm whether institutional inflows are accelerating. For now, exchange net outflows, ETF subscriptions and redemptions, and security incidents warrant continued monitoring.
Markets involve risks; invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice.