Consensus calls for nearly 40% growth, and the most accurate estimates are even higher — expectations have already used up most of the room for error in this ON Semiconductor earnings report.
ON Semiconductor $ON will report its 2026 Q3 results after the U.S. market closes on November 2. The earnings call is at 17:00 Eastern Time.
Consensus estimates: EPS of about $0.877 to $0.88, up roughly 39.7% year over year; revenue of about $1.70 billion to $1.71 billion, up roughly 10.0%. Company guidance: revenue of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $0.81 to $0.93, and a non-GAAP gross margin of 40% to 42%.
Positive signals: Zacks’ most accurate estimate is above consensus, with an ESP of +5.68% and a Hold rating; the company has beaten consensus in each of the past four quarters, by an average of about 3.98%; management expects AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026.
My take: This report is a test of “delivery,” not “storytelling.” First, a beat with no haircut to fourth-quarter guidance would keep the dual narratives of AI data centers and an automotive recovery alive. Second, results in line with consensus but softer guidance would look like a one-off delivery, with cost and supply-chain pressures likely to weigh for a while. Third, revenue near the low end of guidance or gross margin falling below the 40%–42% range would mean recalibrating the margin for error against high expectations. I wouldn’t chase the first move after hours; I’d wait for the call to unpack AI data centers, automotive, and fourth-quarter guidance before deciding on a direction.
Data as of: 2026-11-01 19:18 UTC
For information sharing only; this is not investment advice.
ON Semiconductor $ON will report its 2026 Q3 results after the U.S. market closes on November 2. The earnings call is at 17:00 Eastern Time.
Consensus estimates: EPS of about $0.877 to $0.88, up roughly 39.7% year over year; revenue of about $1.70 billion to $1.71 billion, up roughly 10.0%. Company guidance: revenue of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $0.81 to $0.93, and a non-GAAP gross margin of 40% to 42%.
Positive signals: Zacks’ most accurate estimate is above consensus, with an ESP of +5.68% and a Hold rating; the company has beaten consensus in each of the past four quarters, by an average of about 3.98%; management expects AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026.
My take: This report is a test of “delivery,” not “storytelling.” First, a beat with no haircut to fourth-quarter guidance would keep the dual narratives of AI data centers and an automotive recovery alive. Second, results in line with consensus but softer guidance would look like a one-off delivery, with cost and supply-chain pressures likely to weigh for a while. Third, revenue near the low end of guidance or gross margin falling below the 40%–42% range would mean recalibrating the margin for error against high expectations. I wouldn’t chase the first move after hours; I’d wait for the call to unpack AI data centers, automotive, and fourth-quarter guidance before deciding on a direction.
Data as of: 2026-11-01 19:18 UTC
For information sharing only; this is not investment advice.
