OpenAI has lowered its target for the size of its new funding round—and this fact, despite seeming like a detail, marks an important shift in how major investors view the AI sector. At the same time, Nvidia is considering acting as a co-signer on a loan to build Nscale’s data center in West Virginia. Two events emerging in the same news cycle paint a fundamentally new picture: the era of boundless venture-capital optimism about AI infrastructure is giving way to a phase in which even the biggest players are forced to seek unconventional ways to raise capital.
These events cannot be viewed in isolation from broader trends. Throughout 2023–2024, investment in AI infrastructure grew exponentially: data centers, chips, and models absorbed tens of billions of dollars, with minimal requirements for verifying returns. As we noted earlier, Altman’s thesis that cloud computing power takes priority over user devices became one of the key narratives fueling interest in AI infrastructure assets. Now, however, the market is seeing the first signs of a cooling: if OpenAI—the company with the highest public valuation in the sector—is lowering its funding-round target, it means LP investors and sovereign wealth funds are beginning to exercise caution.
The mechanism Nvidia is discussing in the case of Nscale fundamentally changes the sector’s risk architecture. By effectively acting as a guarantor for debt financing, the chipmaker addresses several goals at once: it secures demand for its own products, retains a strategic customer, and signals to the market that it is willing to participate in new types of financial arrangements. However, this also creates concentrated risk: if demand for computing begins to slow, Nvidia will be exposed not only through revenue but also through credit obligations. In the short term, data-center operators and companies building AI infrastructure with the support of such guarantees stand to benefit. Traditional banks and lenders, pushed out of deals by nonfinancial players, stand to lose, as do investors who were counting on valuations continuing to grow at their previous pace.
The impact on the crypto market is indirect but persistent. BTC is trading at $77,823 (+0.37% over 24 hours)—the market remains stable, but the narrative of “AI as the driver of a new bull cycle” is beginning to be reassessed. For AI tokens—a sector that has grown substantially on expectations of AI infrastructure expansion—a cooling of venture capital appetite is a direct fundamental risk. Projects in decentralized computing, data marketplaces, and agent orchestration are most vulnerable to a reassessment of market multiples. Liquidity in the sector remains sufficient, but a rotation from speculative AI narratives into more defensive assets is a plausible scenario in the coming weeks.
The positive scenario will play out if Nvidia officially confirms its role as guarantor for the Nscale deal and OpenAI closes its funding round close to the original target while maintaining its valuation. This would restore confidence in the infrastructure narrative, give AI tokens a boost, and create conditions for BTC to test higher levels. The base case assumes the market absorbs the current uncertainty without sharp moves: OpenAI raises capital at a modest discount, and Nvidia’s arrangement is seen as a precedent, but not a trend. BTC consolidates within its current range. The negative scenario—a failed OpenAI funding round or Nvidia declining to co-sign—would trigger a reassessment of the entire AI sector, hurting AI tokens and putting pressure on BTC through the risk-appetite channel.
Key risks to watch include the official terms of OpenAI’s funding round and the reaction of its largest LPs; details of Nscale’s financing arrangement and regulators’ stance on unconventional credit structures involving technology companies; and the capital spending trends of major cloud operators in the coming quarter. The regulatory question deserves particular attention: the NAACP lawsuit against the xAI data center has already cleared its first judicial hurdle, setting a precedent for challenges to AI infrastructure under environmental laws. This is a new risk vector that the market has underestimated.
The analyst’s conclusion is clear: the AI sector is entering a phase of maturity in which capital is becoming more expensive and financing arrangements more complex. For the crypto market, this means the end of the period when any project with “AI” in its name automatically traded at a premium. Those that survive will be the ones demonstrating real demand for computing and provable unit economics. Stay tuned for the next analysis—the situation could develop quickly this week.
This material does not constitute investment advice.