They’ve replenished 95%, and BTC is only up 0.35%
Here’s my conclusion first: I’m relieved, but I wouldn’t call this case closed.
The withdrawal window opening is real. The hole being completely plugged? Not yet.
What happened last Thursday night has seen a new development today.
Binance began restoring withdrawals in stages on November 1, with BTC first. The initial window ran from 2 p.m. to 5 p.m. Beijing time.
ETH, USDT, USDC, BNB, XRP, and others were restored in the same batch, spanning 15 chains.
The theft amounted to $6.3 billion. Binance called it the largest in history, and said it involved its hot wallet.
They’ve also laid out where the money to plug the hole came from.
They drew 7,499 BTC from the SAFU fund, worth about $581 million.
The futures insurance fund also chipped in around $425 million.
Add the company’s own treasury, and the three sources together raised coverage from 90% to 95%.
Binance also said it would absorb the losses itself and leave user accounts untouched.
The bulls have a pretty straightforward story to tell.
Binance says the major assets—BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, and others—are now 100% backed by sufficient reserves.
TRM Labs estimates the 18,270 stolen BTC were worth $1.47 billion, and that amount is included in the funds being used to make up the shortfall.
The fact that withdrawals are open is proof in itself that the money is still there—more convincing than any announcement.
The bears have cards to play, too.
The remaining 5% consists of smaller, less liquid coins, and Binance has admitted it will need to buy them gradually over the counter.
The full zero-knowledge proof of reserves isn’t due until November 3. For now, all we have is the snapshot as of October 31.
CertiK also said plainly that, without enough detail, it can’t independently verify Binance’s claim that it replenished reserves with $5 billion worth of tokens.
I think both sides can be right at the same time.
Replenishing 95% shows the company is actually spending money to fill the hole, not just putting out an announcement to buy time.
But until the remaining 5% is covered and the proof is released, we can’t stamp this as fully resolved.
I reckon the market sees it the same way, which is why we got the picture described at the start.
The price action fits that mixed feeling, too.
At the time of writing, BTC was around 77,850, up just 0.35% over 24 hours, with a high of 78,231 and a low of 77,395.
The low the hack drove prices to that week was around 76,100. It’s recovered from there, but hasn’t gone much further.
BTC also fell 7.3% over the whole of October. This year, the “Uptober” meme really didn’t pan out.
So what am I going to do? Honestly, it comes down to one thing.
I’m putting it on my watchlist and waiting for the full proof to land on November 3.
This conclusion is only valid until then. Once the proof comes out, we’ll quickly find out whether this passes muster or proves me wrong.
Will BTC reclaim 78,231 and complete its recovery, or fall below 77,395, showing there are more people withdrawing than buying the dip?
I’m betting on the former. What about you?
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#比特币 #Binance
Here’s my conclusion first: I’m relieved, but I wouldn’t call this case closed.
The withdrawal window opening is real. The hole being completely plugged? Not yet.
What happened last Thursday night has seen a new development today.
Binance began restoring withdrawals in stages on November 1, with BTC first. The initial window ran from 2 p.m. to 5 p.m. Beijing time.
ETH, USDT, USDC, BNB, XRP, and others were restored in the same batch, spanning 15 chains.
The theft amounted to $6.3 billion. Binance called it the largest in history, and said it involved its hot wallet.
They’ve also laid out where the money to plug the hole came from.
They drew 7,499 BTC from the SAFU fund, worth about $581 million.
The futures insurance fund also chipped in around $425 million.
Add the company’s own treasury, and the three sources together raised coverage from 90% to 95%.
Binance also said it would absorb the losses itself and leave user accounts untouched.
The bulls have a pretty straightforward story to tell.
Binance says the major assets—BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, and others—are now 100% backed by sufficient reserves.
TRM Labs estimates the 18,270 stolen BTC were worth $1.47 billion, and that amount is included in the funds being used to make up the shortfall.
The fact that withdrawals are open is proof in itself that the money is still there—more convincing than any announcement.
The bears have cards to play, too.
The remaining 5% consists of smaller, less liquid coins, and Binance has admitted it will need to buy them gradually over the counter.
The full zero-knowledge proof of reserves isn’t due until November 3. For now, all we have is the snapshot as of October 31.
CertiK also said plainly that, without enough detail, it can’t independently verify Binance’s claim that it replenished reserves with $5 billion worth of tokens.
I think both sides can be right at the same time.
Replenishing 95% shows the company is actually spending money to fill the hole, not just putting out an announcement to buy time.
But until the remaining 5% is covered and the proof is released, we can’t stamp this as fully resolved.
I reckon the market sees it the same way, which is why we got the picture described at the start.
The price action fits that mixed feeling, too.
At the time of writing, BTC was around 77,850, up just 0.35% over 24 hours, with a high of 78,231 and a low of 77,395.
The low the hack drove prices to that week was around 76,100. It’s recovered from there, but hasn’t gone much further.
BTC also fell 7.3% over the whole of October. This year, the “Uptober” meme really didn’t pan out.
So what am I going to do? Honestly, it comes down to one thing.
I’m putting it on my watchlist and waiting for the full proof to land on November 3.
This conclusion is only valid until then. Once the proof comes out, we’ll quickly find out whether this passes muster or proves me wrong.
Will BTC reclaim 78,231 and complete its recovery, or fall below 77,395, showing there are more people withdrawing than buying the dip?
I’m betting on the former. What about you?
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#比特币 #Binance
