【Trump is preparing for “veto mode” early; policy battles may be harder to resolve after the U.S. midterm elections】
Trump $TRUMP said he could become “Mr. Veto,” and the White House has already begun looking into ways to advance policies without Congress: from tariffs on critical minerals and wind-power equipment to visa restrictions and federal funding. These all involve areas that affect business costs and investment expectations. Even if Democrats control Congress, the White House will retain considerable executive power, and the two sides are likely to shift the battleground to executive orders, budget implementation, and court challenges.
The election outcome is already partly reflected in market pricing: as of November 1, Polymarket put the odds of Democrats winning the House at about 94.5% and the Senate at about 72.5%. These are prediction-market prices, not election results, but they show that investors are already anticipating a shift in control of Congress.
For markets, the real trouble is policy reversals: tariffs could change import costs, visa restrictions could affect labor supply, and funding rules could influence investment by businesses and entire industries. U.S. policy uncertainty is indeed increasing. The end of the election may not mean the risks have materialized; it may simply mark the start of another round of political wrangling.
#美国中期选举 #特朗普 #TRUMP
Trump $TRUMP said he could become “Mr. Veto,” and the White House has already begun looking into ways to advance policies without Congress: from tariffs on critical minerals and wind-power equipment to visa restrictions and federal funding. These all involve areas that affect business costs and investment expectations. Even if Democrats control Congress, the White House will retain considerable executive power, and the two sides are likely to shift the battleground to executive orders, budget implementation, and court challenges.
The election outcome is already partly reflected in market pricing: as of November 1, Polymarket put the odds of Democrats winning the House at about 94.5% and the Senate at about 72.5%. These are prediction-market prices, not election results, but they show that investors are already anticipating a shift in control of Congress.
For markets, the real trouble is policy reversals: tariffs could change import costs, visa restrictions could affect labor supply, and funding rules could influence investment by businesses and entire industries. U.S. policy uncertainty is indeed increasing. The end of the election may not mean the risks have materialized; it may simply mark the start of another round of political wrangling.
#美国中期选举 #特朗普 #TRUMP