Shouyue Macro Report | November 1
Binance recovery progresses; fund inflows remain key
Today's outlook: Event risks have eased somewhat, but macro conditions and fund flows remain defensive. The market is positioned for a sentiment recovery, but a trend reversal still needs confirmation from both prices and fund flows.
⏰ U.S. market hours change starting tomorrow
Starting Monday, November 2, the schedule will follow U.S. standard time:
• Shouyue U.S. market report: 21:45 Beijing time.
• Key U.S. market trading window: U.S. stocks officially open at 22:30 Beijing time.
• Regular U.S. stock market close: 05:00 the following day.
• U.S. Eastern Time 08:30 data releases, such as Nonfarm Payrolls and initial jobless claims: 21:30 Beijing time.
Please adjust your chart-watching schedule accordingly, paying close attention to volatility between the 21:30 data release and the 22:30 market open. The strategy should still be executed only after its trigger conditions are met.
I. Binance Incident: Asset Replenishment Progress Reaches About 95%
In an official announcement on November 1, Binance said that about 95% of the affected assets had been replenished; the remaining roughly 5% mainly involves tokens with lower liquidity that take longer to acquire.
The company stated that BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC balances are all 100% backed, and that withdrawals will resume in stages. Check the withdrawal page for the status of each asset and network.
Shouyue believes that asset replenishment and the restoration of services may help ease market panic. Next, watch whether withdrawals are processed smoothly and whether platform fund flows gradually stabilize.
We support the platform taking responsibility and protecting users, while continuing to monitor actual delivery. Replenishing assets, restoring withdrawals, and recovering stolen funds are three separate processes.
II. Final ETF Data: Outflow Pressure Mounts for BTC and ETH
The figures below are net creations and redemptions through October 30. The 3-day period covers October 28–30, and the 7-day period covers the seven trading days from October 22–30; there were no additional U.S. ETF trading days over the weekend.
BTC:
Net outflows of $643.2 million on Friday.
Net outflows of $488.7 million over the past 3 days.
Net outflows of $975.9 million over the past 7 days.
Compared with yesterday’s preliminary figure, which lacked IBIT data, the completed data shows greater fund-flow pressure.
ETH:
Net outflows of $155.7 million on Friday.
Net outflows of $282.6 million over the past 3 days.
Net outflows of $537.6 million over the past 7 days.
SOL:
Net outflows of $10.8 million on Friday.
Net outflows of $44.2 million over the past 3 days.
Net outflows of $80.5 million over the past 7 days.
HYPE:
Net flows were zero on Friday.
Net inflows of $3.7 million over the past 3 days.
Net outflows of $8.5 million over the past 7 days.
ZEC:
Net outflows of $4.6 million on Friday.
Net inflows of $12.3 million over the past 3 days.
Net inflows of $52.5 million over the past 7 days.
This follows the scope of the ZCSH product listed by Farside, which differs from the coverage of U.S. spot ETFs.
XRP:
Among the five funds included in this reading, three reported figures for Friday, showing a preliminary net inflow of $200,000; XRPZ and GXRP are still missing. Complete, consistent series for the past 3 and 7 days were unavailable, so figures from different sources have not been combined.
The takeaway on fund flows: progress toward restoring the platform may improve sentiment, but BTC, ETH, and SOL still need ETF inflows to provide support. Whether the weekend rebound can continue will depend significantly on institutional fund flows next week.
III. Fed Holds Rates; Inflation Constraints Remain
On October 28, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, while two committee members favored a 25-basis-point hike. The statement continued to stress that inflation remains elevated, so the pause should not be interpreted as a direct shift toward easing.
September PCE showed:
• Headline PCE rose 3.6% year over year and 0.5% month over month.
• Core PCE rose 3.1% year over year and 0.3% month over month.
• Real consumption was nearly flat month over month.
• Real disposable income fell 0.3% month over month.
Shouyue’s read: Price pressures remain high, household purchasing power is being squeezed, and room for policy easing remains limited.
The Polymarket page reviewed showed an implied probability of about 71% for a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. This is prediction-market pricing that can change with data and news; it is not a commitment by the Fed. The latest official CME probability was unavailable for this report, so no third-party calculation is used as a substitute.
IV. Treasury Yields Pull Back, but Risk Appetite Has Yet to Fully Recover
U.S. Treasury daily data for October 30:
• 2-year yield: 4.56%, down 5 basis points on the day.
• 10-year yield: 4.94%, down 4 basis points on the day.
• 30-year yield: 5.31%, down 1 basis point on the day.
Yields fell more noticeably at the short end, while long-term financing costs remain high.
The U.S. Dollar Index was near 102 on Friday; the VIX closed at 19.42, up about 12.9% on the day. Stronger bonds and rising volatility reflect continued safe-haven demand.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 34 today, up from 30 yesterday, but remained in fear territory. Easing sentiment is a positive development, but not enough on its own to confirm a bottom.
V. Oil and Geopolitics: Key Variables for Next Week
WTI crude settled at $104.12 on Friday, up 2.08%.
The December Brent contract expired and settled at $117.64, while the more actively traded January contract for the following year stood at $113.43. The spread between different contracts should not be mistaken for a sudden drop in oil prices.
Reuters reported today that Iranian negotiators continued talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, while the risk of an escalation in the conflict following the U.S. midterm elections remains a concern. Progress in talks does not yet mean an agreement has been reached.
If supply risks ease and oil prices fall, inflationary pressure could lessen. If shipping is disrupted again and oil prices surge, risk assets may face both rising costs and valuation compression.
VI. Gold and Silver: Continued Monitoring of Holdings Support
As of October 30, SPDR Gold ETF holdings stood at 1,041.65 tonnes, up 0.57 tonnes from the previous day, with a cumulative decrease of 14.05 tonnes in October. This figure comes from a record citing historical SPDR data.
A small one-day increase in holdings is not yet enough to change the backdrop of monthly outflows.
iShares Silver Trust officially reported holdings of 15,645.73 tonnes, while the fund’s net asset value fell 4.43% that day. Holdings and price performance should be assessed separately.
For gold and silver, geopolitical safe-haven demand continues to contend with inflation and interest-rate pressures. A tense situation alone does not guarantee higher prices.
VII. Key Events Next Week
All times below are Beijing time:
• Monday, November 2, 23:00: ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Tuesday, November 3, 23:00: JOLTS job openings; watch the U.S. midterm elections.
• Wednesday, November 4, 21:15: ADP employment; 23:00: ISM Services PMI.
• Thursday, November 5, 21:30: Initial jobless claims.
• Friday, November 6, 21:30: Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data.
The TD calendar lists a consensus forecast of 65,000 new jobs for nonfarm payrolls, versus 29,000 previously; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%. Market expectations may continue to change.
VIII. Shouyue’s Trading View
Today, we maintain a “watch for recovery while staying defensive” stance.
BTC remains the anchor of the crypto market. A sustained rebound becomes more likely only after it reclaims the broken structure, holds on a retest, and sees genuine buying support. ETH and SOL also need improving fund flows; for HYPE, ZEC, and XRP, monitor their respective support.
If withdrawals resume smoothly, geopolitical risks ease, and ETFs return to net inflows, conditions for a recovery will gradually improve.
If prices spike on news and then retreat, or fail to hold on a retest, continue to treat the move as a weak rebound. If oil continues to surge and institutional redemptions persist, keep controlling position sizes and drawdowns.
Wait for right-side confirmation on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts before entering. Set the SL at the level where the structure is invalidated, and take profit in stages according to the actual available move. Use macro factors to adjust direction and position size; specific prices depend on the contract structure of each trading pair.
Starting tomorrow, check the U.S. session report at 21:45 and watch the 22:30 U.S. stock market open for execution opportunities. Wait for confirmation before trading.
Shouyue Community | Set Sail
November 1, 2026
@MK守约 Shouyue Community