The $6.3 billion incident did not recreate the panic of 2018. BTC returned to around 77,400 on Saturday night, down about 4% from before the incident; its intraday low was 76,400. After Binance was attacked in 2018, BTC fell nearly 11% within minutes (Decrypt, Cointelegraph, Oct. 30–31). Strive CEO Matt Cole said this looked more like a single company’s wallet being compromised and that the long-term thesis remained unchanged, but it was still too early to confirm a bottom.
Structural buffers came from the market’s size and its holders. Decrypt reported that total crypto market capitalization had risen from just over $400 billion in 2018 to about $2.6 trillion, while U.S. spot BTC ETFs held about 1.3 million BTC, or roughly 6% of the supply; holders do not need to keep their coins on exchanges. The current decline still triggered the liquidation of more than $1.3 billion in leveraged positions.
My personal view: this confirms resilience, not a reversal. Binance snapshot at 21:00 on November 1: BTC at $77,891.97 (+0.407%), with a 24-hour range of $77,392.01–$78,285. If it closes above $78,285 on the 4-hour chart and holds above $77,800 on a retest, consider a long, targeting $79,000 and $79,811, with a stop-loss at $77,300. If it breaks below $77,392 and fails to reclaim it on a bounce, look toward $76,400 and $75,500, with a stop-loss at $78,300.
The setup is invalidated if ETF net outflows accelerate or BTC falls back below $76,400. The resilience trade only holds if event-driven capital continues flowing back in. Do you think the market has really matured this time?
$BTC
The above content does not constitute investment advice